长江经济带经济集聚对工业废水排放影响的空间溢出效应与门槛特征  

Spatial spillover effect and threshold characteristics of economic agglomeration on industrial wastewater discharge in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：张帆 邓宏兵[1] 彭永樟 ZHANG Fan;DENG Hongbing;PENG Yongzhang(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 470074,China;Economic Research Center for Resources and Environment,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,武汉470074 [2]东华理工大学资源与环境经济研究中心,南昌330013

出　　处：《资源科学》2021年第1期57-68,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(19CTJ012);江西省社会科学规划项目(18YJ17);东华理工大学资源与环境经济研究中心开放基金项目(18JJ03)。

摘　　要：经济集聚促进长江经济带区域经济发展的同时也会影响环境质量,为探讨经济集聚对工业废水排放的影响效应,本文基于2003—2017年长江经济带110个地级及以上城市面板数据,采用探索性空间数据分析、空间计量模型和门槛回归模型等方法,考察经济集聚与工业废水排放的空间分布与聚类状况,解析经济集聚对工业废水排放影响的空间溢出效应并验证其门槛特征。结果表明:①经济集聚、工业废水排放总量和排放强度均存在显著的正向空间自相关性,长三角地区经济集聚与工业废水排放总量多呈现"高-高"型聚类,长江上游地区多为"低-低"型聚类,且保持较为稳定的态势;而工业废水排放强度的聚类状况则呈现出较大差异;②经济集聚存在明显的空间溢出效应且抑制工业废水排放的直接效应和间接效应均较为显著,集聚过程中经济发展水平、人口密度、二产占比和交通便利度提升会对工业废水排放总量产生正向影响。技术水平和对外开放对工业废水排放总量的影响不显著,但对排放强度却有抑制作用;③经济集聚对工业废水排放总量和排放强度的影响存在单一门槛,当经济集聚度跨越门槛值后对工业废水排放总量和排放强度的抑制作用均有所减弱。最后,建议在促进经济集聚过程中应充分关注空间因素及其独特特征,针对工业废水减排可同步实施区域内针对性治理和跨区域协同治理的策略举措,切实推进长江经济带高质量发展。Economic agglomeration can promote the regional economic development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, but also affect the environmental quality. In order to explore the impact of economic agglomeration on industrial wastewater discharge, based on the panel data of 110 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2017, this study used exploratory spatial data analysis, spatial econometric model, and threshold regression model to investigate the spatial distribution and clustering of economic agglomeration and industrial wastewater discharge,and analyzed the spatial spillover effect of economic agglomeration on industrial wastewater discharge. The results show that:(1) There is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation among economic agglomeration, total amount and intensity of industrial wastewater discharge, and verified the threshold characteristics. The economic agglomeration and total industrial wastewater discharge of the Yangtze River Delta cities mostly show a high-high clustering, and the cities in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River form mostly low-low clusters, and maintain a relatively stable situation, while the clustering of industrial wastewater discharge intensity is different;(2)Economic agglomeration has obvious spatial spillover effect, and the direct and indirect effects of inhibiting industrial wastewater discharge are significant. Economic development level, population density, proportion of secondary industry, and traffic convenience have a positive impact on the total amount of industrial wastewater discharge. The impact of technological development level and openness on the total amount of industrial wastewater discharge is not significant, but have a restraining effect on the discharge intensity;(3) There is a single threshold for the impact of economic agglomeration on industrial wastewater discharge. When the economic agglomeration degree crosses the threshold, the inhibition of industrial wastewater discharge is weakened. Finally,it is suggested that the spatial fac

关 键 词：经济集聚 工业废水排放 空间溢出效应 门槛特征 空间杜宾模型 门槛回归模型 长江经济带 

分 类 号：X703[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F127[经济管理—世界经济]