基于灰色理论和时间序列模型预测棉花产量可行性研究  

Research on Forecast of Cotton Yield Based on Grey Theory and Time Series

作　　者：尹晓燕 王旭阳 史澳 何晓丰 王雪 刘云[1] Yin Xiaoyan;Wang Xuyang;Shi Ao;He Xiaofeng;Wang Xue;Liu Yun(College of Information Engineering,Tarim University.,Alar,Xinjiang 843300,China)

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学信息工程学院,新疆阿拉尔843300

出　　处：《棉花科学》2021年第1期15-21,共7页Cotton Sciences

基　　金：塔里木大学自然科学类人才项目(TDZKSS201904);塔里木大学大学生创新创业项目(2020099)。

摘　　要：为了进一步提高新疆棉花产量的预测精度,运用GM模型与ARIMA模型对新疆棉花产量进行了预测,进而赋予合理权重建立了基于灰色理论和时间序列的组合预测模型对新疆棉花产量进行了预测。实证分析结果表明:组合模型的预测结果更加逼近于真实数据,预测精确度较单一预测模型的结果准确性更高、误差更小。因此,GM模型与ARIMA模型组合预测新疆棉花产量是可行的。In order to improve the forecast precision of Xinjiang cotton yield,the GM model and ARIMA model are used to predict Xinjiang cotton yield,the combination forecasting model based on grey theory and time series was established to predict the cotton yield in Xinjiang.The results of empirical analysis showed that the forecasting accuracy of the combined model is higher and the error is smaller than that of the single model.Therefore,it is feasible to combin the GM model and the ARIMA model to forecast cotton yield in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：灰色理论 时间序列 组合模型 棉花产量 预测 

分 类 号：S562[农业科学—作物学]