农村留守劳动人口转移意愿研究——基于十省流出地的调查  

Rural-to-urban Migration Intention:Evidence from Migrants in 10 Origin Provinces

作　　者：齐嘉楠[1] 刘鸿雁[1] 李伯华[1] 于典 QI Jia-nan;LIU Hong-yan;LI Bo-hua;YU Dian(China Population and Development Research Center,Beijing 100081,China;Chicago University,Chicago IL60615,United States of America)

机构地区：[1]中国人口与发展研究中心,北京100081 [2]芝加哥大学哈里斯公共政策学院,[美]芝加哥,IL60615

出　　处：《人口与发展》2021年第1期63-72,62,共11页Population and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国人口数据综合集成应用平台建设(1949-2015)”(编号:16ZDA089)的支持。

摘　　要：利用2016年原国家卫计委在10个省份开展的流出地监测调查数据,采用多层Logit回归分析方法,对留守的农村人口转移能力、转移意愿及其影响因素进行研究。结果发现,农村地区具备向城市转移能力的劳动力资源依然丰富,但留守人群当前转移意愿偏低,且不同城镇化地区呈现差异化的转移意愿模式。农村土地流转改革可提升留守人群的转移意愿,但仅在低城镇化模式下效用显著。建议未来加强基于农村流出地的人口流出意愿及行为的监测调查,针对处于不同城镇化发展阶段的地区,制定并实施差异化的鼓励农村人口转移政策。Using the data of outflow monitoring survey carried out by the former National Health and Family Planning Commission in 10 provinces in 2016,this paper studies the transfer capability,transfer willingness and influencing factors of the agricultural population left-behind by using the multi-level binary logistic regression analysis method.The results show that the labor resources of rural areas with the ability to transfer to cities are still abundant,but the current transfer willingness of the left-behind population is low,and different urbanization areas pre-sent a differentiated mode of transfer willingness.The reform of rural land transfer can enhance the transfer willingness of the people left-behind,but it is effective only under the low urbanization mode.It is suggested to strengthen the monitoring and investigation of the willingness and behavior of population outflow based on rural outflow in the future,and to formulate and implement differentiated policies to encourage agricultural population transfer in areas at different stages of urbanization development.

关 键 词：农村留守人口 转移能力 转移意愿 土地流转 城镇化 

分 类 号：C913[经济管理]