新冠肺炎疫情影响下国际生产结构调整分析--兼论制造业FDI是否会撤离中国  

General Equilibrium Analysis on Structural Adjustment of International Production under the COVID-19 Epidemic and Discussion on FDI Withdrawal from China's Manufacturing

作　　者：王建[1] 李清杨 Wang Jian;Li Qing-yang

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学国际经贸学院 [2]山东大学经济学院,济南250014

出　　处：《亚太经济》2021年第1期25-33,149,150,共11页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国海外园区全球布局的空间选择与协同治理研究”(19ZDA137);国家社会科学基金一般项目“比较优势演化视角下我国自由贸易区战略与产业升级路径选择研究”(19BGJ018)。

摘　　要：新冠肺炎疫情将加快国际生产结构调整,基于知识-资本模型将国际生产结构分为贸易型、水平型、垂直型和综合型四类并进行一般均衡分析,模拟新冠肺炎疫情引发交易成本上升对国际生产结构的影响。结果表明:垂直型生产结构显著萎缩,而当地生产、当地销售的综合型生产结构显著扩展,全球价值链将呈现链条缩短和区域扩张趋势;对中国而言,作为已积累一定高级要素、具有大市场优势的发展中国家,总体上跨国公司不会离开,但可能改变在中国的生产结构。The COVID-19 will accelerate structural adjustment of international production.The international production structures are classified as trade pattern,horizontal pattern,vertical pattern and integrated pattern based on the knowledge-capital model.After simulating the effects of transaction cost raise induced by the COVID-19 on international production structure,it is found that vertical production structure may significantly shrink while integrated production structure expand,which implies the prevailing of local production and local sale and shorter,less fragmented and geographic spread of value chains.As for China,it may not suffer the increased divestment on the whole because of its considerable advanced factors and market size,but MNEs may change their production structures in China.The conclusions can also provide theoretical support for China’s“Dual Circulation”strategy.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 交易成本 制造业回流 生产结构 

分 类 号：F114.44[经济管理—国际贸易]