政府性基金收入预决算偏离问题研究  

An Analysis of the Deviations between Budget and Final Accounts of Government-Managed Funds Revenue

作　　者：刘昶 LIU Chang(Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences,Beijing 100142,China)

机构地区：[1]中国财政科学研究院,北京100142

出　　处：《当代财经》2021年第2期38-48,共11页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“完善财政转移支付制度研究”(17BJY173);中国财政科学研究院青年项目招标课题“政府性基金预决算偏离问题研究”(201904)。

摘　　要：我国政府性基金预算收入长期存在系统性的预决算偏离问题,这会导致政府预算的法治性、规范性、科学性以及约束力大打折扣。因此,要加大对政府性基金收入预决算偏离度的研究,分析其产生的原因并提出治理之策。利用2010—2017年我国31个省级地方政府的面板数据,实证分析了政府性基金收入预决算的偏离度及其成因。研究发现,我国地方政府性基金预算存在系统性超收问题;地方政府官员在政治晋升激励下追求G D P高速增长,并策略性地低估G D P预期增长目标,这为政府性基金预算超收打下了经济基础;地方政府的机会主义动机和策略性行为是政府性基金收入预决算偏离过大的深层次体制成因。因此,在提高对政府性基金预算管理重视程度的同时,既要从预算技术层面入手提升预算管理水平,更要从根本上改变对地方政府官员的激励与约束机制,从而彻底解决政府性基金收入预决算偏离过大的问题。The budget revenue of China’s government-managed funds has a long-standing systemic problem of deviations between budget and final accounts, which would lead to serious discounts on the legitimacy, normativity, scientificity and binding force of the government budget. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the researches on the deviation degree between the budget and the final accounts of government-managed funds revenue and to analyze the major reasons and propose strategies to solve the practical problems. By making use of the panel data of 31 provincial level local governments in China’s mainland from 2010 to 2017, this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the deviation degree between the budget and the final accounts of government-managed funds revenue, as well as its causes. The findings show that the budget of China’s local government-managed funds has a systematic over-collection problem. Motivated by political promotions, China’s local officials would pursue high-speed GDP growth and strategically underestimate the expected GDP growth, which would lay the economic foundation for the budget over-collection of government-managed funds. The opportunistic motivation and the strategic behavior of the local governments are the deep-seated institutional causes of the excessive deviations between the budget and the final accounts of government-managed funds revenue. Therefore, while paying more attention to the budget management of government-managed funds, it is necessary not only to improve the level of budget management from the technological level, but also to change fundamentally the incentive and constrain mechanism on the officials of local governments, so as to completely solve the excessive deviations between the budget and the final accounts of government-managed funds revenue.

关 键 词：政府性基金预算 预决算偏离 预算超收 政治晋升激励 

分 类 号：F812.3[经济管理—财政学]