反复性视角下网络舆情风险评估指标体系研究  

Research on the Risk Assessment Index System of Internet Public Opinion from the Perspective of Recurrence

作　　者：张鑫[1,2] 田雪灿[1] 刘鑫雅 Zhang Xin;Tian Xuecan;Liu Xinya

机构地区：[1]河北大学管理学院,河北保定071002 [2]南开大学商学院,天津300071 [3]河北大学数学与信息科学学院,河北保定071002

出　　处：《图书与情报》2020年第6期123-135,共13页Library & Information

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目“雄安新区发展视域下网络舆情风险评估与治理研究”(项目编号:HB18TQ005)研究成果之一。

摘　　要：反复性舆情作为网络社会中常态化存在,对其进行针对性研究和科学预测,有助于引导舆情健康发展,维护网络社会稳定。文章构建了面向反复性事件的网络舆情风险评估指标体系,采用德尔菲法和层次分析法对指标体系进行了检验和权重测量。在此基础上,以"垃圾分类"舆情事件为例,通过统计分析、主成分分析、文本情感分析等方法,剖析了舆情主体、舆情客体、关键传播节点等不同指标在舆情各阶段所呈现的特征,重点比较了舆情反复阶段与其它阶段特征的异同。研究结果为反复性网络舆情的有效识别、风险评估及科学引导提供了参考依据。Public opinion about recurrent events is the existence of normalization in the network society.The targeted research and scientific prediction will help to guide the orderly development of public opinion and maintain the stability of the network society.This study constructs a risk assessment index system of network public opinion for recurrent events,uses Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process to test and measure the weight of the index system.Based on this,taking the"Garbage Classification Event"as an example,this study analyzes the characteristics of indicators such as public opinion subject,public opinion object and key communication nodes in each stage of public opinion through statistical analysis,principal component analysis and text emotion analysis,and especially compares the similarities and differences between the recurrent stage and other stages.The results provide a reference for the effective identification,risk assessment and scientific guidance of recurrent public opinion.

关 键 词：反复性事件 网络舆情 风险 评估指标 

分 类 号：G203[文化科学—传播学]