居民消费率、消费结构与经济增长效应——基于260个城市CLDS的数据研究  

Household Consumption Rate,Consumption Structure and Economic Growth Effect:Based on the Research of CLDS Survey Data of 260 Cities

作　　者：高波[1] 雷红 GAO Bo;LEI Hong(School of Economics,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《河北学刊》2021年第2期136-145,共10页Hebei Academic Journal

基　　金：2018年度国家社会科学基金一般项目“新时代激发和保护企业家精神的制度环境演化及对策研究”(18BJY112)。

摘　　要：在全球新冠肺炎疫情蔓延和国际环境日益复杂的背景下,通过促进国内居民消费、推动消费结构升级、释放消费巨大潜力等方式提升消费对中国经济高质量发展的贡献是提振中国经济的重要举措。本研究基于中山大学2014年和2016年中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)的微观数据,结合中国260个地级及以上城市的数据,从个体层面和区域层面分别进行实证检验,分析居民消费支出、居民消费率、消费结构升级等因素的经济增长效应。研究发现,(1)从消费总量的视角来看,居民消费支出均能够直接对经济增长产生促进作用;居民消费率和人力资本积累越高,拉动经济增长的效果越强。(2)从消费结构升级的视角来看,发展型消费比重越大,消费带来的增长效应越强。因此,要不断改革和完善收入分配制度,缩小城乡居民的收入差距,积极引导并促使居民消费,尤其是当期消费,改善消费环境,提升居民的消费信心。与此同时,从医疗保健、教育、文化娱乐、旅游度假等方面采取有效措施提高居民的发展型消费支出,倡导个人提升受教育程度,促进消费主导型经济增长。In the context of the global spread of COVID-19 and the increasingly complex international environment,it has become an important measure of the current Chinese economy to enhance the contribution of consumption to the high-quality development of China’s economy by promoting consumption of domestic residents,facilitating the upgrading of consumption structure,and releasing the huge potential of consumption.Based on the micro data of China Labor-force Dynamics Survey(CLDS)ofSun Yat-sen University in 2014 and 2016,combined with Chinese 260 prefecture-level and above cities’data,this paper analyzes economic growth effects brought about by factors such as residents’consumer expenditure,residents’consumption rate,and consumption structure upgrade from the individual and regional levels respectively.The study found that:(1)from the perspective of total consumption,household consumption expenditure can directly promote economic growth;the higher the household consumption rate and human capital accumulation,the stronger the effect of stimulating economic growth;(2)from the perspective of consumption structure upgrading,the larger the proportion of developmental consumption,the stronger the growth effect of consumption.Therefore,it is necessary to continue to reform and improve the income distribution system,narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents,and guide and promote residents’consumption,improve the consumption environment,and enhance residents’consumption confidence.At the same time,effective measures should be taken to increase residents’developmental consumption expenditures in terms of healthcare,education,culture and entertainment,tourism and vacation,and encourage individuals to improve their education levels,and promote consumption-led economic growth.

关 键 词：居民消费率 消费结构升级 全要素生产率 消费主导型经济增长 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]