基于ISM-BN的装配式建筑隐性成本分析  

Analysis on the Hidden Cost of Prefabricated Buildings Based on ISM-BN

作　　者：彭军龙[1] 周静 PENG Junlong;ZHOU Jing(School of Traffic&Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410114,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2021年第1期37-43,85,共8页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51578080)。

摘　　要：成本一直是装配式建筑发展中重要考虑的因素之一,其隐性成本对项目总成本影响极大,且存在于项目建设的全过程。为分析和研究装配式建筑隐性成本,文章从设计、管理、技术、政策和环境五个维度,建立了装配式建筑隐性成本影响因素的指标体系,共包含13个因素;并将解释结构模型(ISM)和贝叶斯网络(BN)相结合,构建基于ISM-BN的装配式建筑隐性成本分析模型。该模型不仅能通过因果推理推测出装配式建筑隐性成本发生的概率以及对其进行实时管控,还能通过诊断推理推导出当隐性成本发生时,其它影响因素发生的后验概率,找出导致隐性成本发生的关键因素,并逐一排查确定最终的影响因素。该研究为管理者在装配式建筑隐性成本的分析和管控中提供科学有效的决策和参考意见。Cost has always been one of the important factors in the development of prefabricated buildings.Hidden cost has a great impact on the total cost of the project,and it exists in the whole process of project construction.In order to analyze and study the hidden cost of prefabricated buildings,this paper establishes its index system of the influencing 13 factors in total from the five dimensions of design,management,technology,policy and environment.And we set up the hidden cost analysis model(ISM-BN)of prefabricated buildings from the combination of interpretive structure model(ISM)with bayesian network(BN).The model can not only infer the probability of the hidden cost of prefabricated buildings and control it in real time through causal reasoning,but also infer the posterior probability of other influencing factors when the hidden cost occurs through diagnostic reasoning,find out the key factors that lead to the hidden cost,and check out the final influencing factors one by one.This study provides managers with scientific and effective decision-making and reference opinions for the analysis and control of hidden costs of prefabricated buildings.

关 键 词：装配式建筑 隐性成本 贝叶斯网络 ISM 

分 类 号：TU723.3[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]