实时洪水预报研究进展与展望  

Research progress and prospect of real-time flood forecasting

作　　者：刘炜伟[1] 盖永伟[2] 管西柯[3] 吴晓东[1] LIU Weiwei;GAI Yongwei;GUAN Xike;WU Xiaodong(Lianyungang Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Jiangsu Province,Lianyungang 222004,China;Water Resources Service Center of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210029,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省水文水资源勘测局连云港分局,江苏连云港222004 [2]江苏省水资源服务中心,江苏南京210029 [3]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《江苏水利》2021年第2期55-58,共4页Jiangsu Water Resources

摘　　要：洪水预报是防汛指挥调度的重要依据,而实时洪水预报是提高洪水预报的重要技术手段,对提高防汛效率、保障防汛安全具有重要意义。针对实时洪水预报的复杂性和不确定性,提出了基于神经网络异联想记忆技术的综合修正方法和考虑降雨不确定性的概率预报模型等理论方法,通过误差反传、迭代计算和滚动预报等技术手段不断提高实时洪水预报的修正水平,取得了显著成效。通过分析研究关于实时洪水预报的相关理论成果,理清实时洪水预报发展现状,并提出了实时洪水预报未来研究的重点。Flood forecasting is an important basis for flood control and dispatching,and real-time flood forecasting is an important technical means to improve flood forecasting,which is of great significance to improve flood control efficiency and ensure flood control safety.In view of the complexity and uncertainty of real-time flood forecasting,a comprehensive correction method based on neural network heteroassociative memory technology and a probability forecasting model considering rainfall uncertainty was put forward,which continuously improved the correction level of real-time flood forecasting by means of error back propagation,iterative calculation and rolling forecasting,and achieved remarkable results.By analyzing and studying the related theoretical achievements of real-time flood forecasting,the development status of real-time flood forecasting was clarified,and the key points of future research on real-time flood forecasting was put forward.

关 键 词：洪水预报 实时修正 概率预报 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]