基于CBR的泥石流区域铁路选线方案辅助决策模型研究  

Study on the Auxiliary Decision-making Model for Railway Route Selection in Debris Flow Area Based on CBR

作　　者：樊惠惠 李远富[1,2] 蒋频 杨昌睿 邹鑫 FAN Huihui;LI Yuanfu;JIANG Pin;YANG Changrui;ZOU Xin(School of Civil Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China;Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education of High Speed Railway Engineering,Chengdu 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学土木工程学院,成都610031 [2]高速铁路线路工程教育部重点实验室,成都610031

出　　处：《铁道标准设计》2021年第3期46-51,共6页Railway Standard Design

基　　金：中国铁路总公司科技研究计划重大课题(2013G008-A-1);西南交通大学个性化实验项目(川藏铁路隧道智能化建造方法探索GX201913132)。

摘　　要：为了将历史泥石流区域选线案例应用于拟建川藏铁路泥石流区域选线方案的决策中,建立基于案例推理的艰险山区泥石流区域选线方案辅助决策模型。首先选取数个特征属性对泥石流案例进行定量表示,并运用梯形模糊层次分析法为各特征属性赋权;而后根据历史工程案例资料建立了艰险山区泥石流灾害案例库,在此基础上,利用灰色关联方法进行相似案例的检索,相似案例的选线方案经过适当修正后用于目标案例。最后,通过巴涅弄沟泥石流实例分析,验证了该模型的有效性。结果表明:该模型可在地形地质等工程资料尚不明确的条件下,充分利用历史泥石流案例资料,通过推理初步得到合理可行的泥石流区域选线方案,为铁路选线方案的决策提供了新手段。In order to apply historical project cases to the decision of route selection in debris flow area of the proposed Sichuan-Tibet Railway,an auxiliary decision-making model for route selection in debris flow area of inaccessible mountain regions is established.First of all,several characteristic attributes are chosen to quantitatively express the debris flow cases and trapezoid fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method is used to determine the weight of each characteristic attribute.Then,the debris flow case base of inaccessible mountain regions is established according to previous case data.On this basis,the gray relational analysis is employed to complete the retrieval of similar cases,and similar cases are properly revised to guide the target case.Finally,the validity of the model is verified by an example analysis of the Banienonggou Debris Flow.The result shows that the model can help the full use of the case data of historical debris flow to obtain a reasonable route selection scheme in mountainous debris flow area in case that engineering data of topography and geology are not clear.

关 键 词：案例推理 泥石流 梯形模糊层次分析 灰色关联分析 铁路选线 

分 类 号：U212.32[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]