芋疫病空间分布格局及其抽样技术研究  

Taro Blight: Spatial Distribution Pattern and Sampling Technique

作　　者：王会福[1] 余山红[1] 张惠琴 赵永彬[1] Wang Huifu;Yu Shanhong;Zhang Huiqin;Zhao Yongbin(Taizhou Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Linhai Zhejiang 317000;Plant Protection and Quarantine Station of Xianju County,Xianju Zhejiang 317300)

机构地区：[1]台州市农业科学研究院,浙江临海317000 [2]仙居县植物保护检疫站,浙江仙居317300

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2020年第32期118-122,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：浙江省台州市科技计划农业类项目“芋疫病灾变规律及绿色防控技术研究”(162ny05)。

摘　　要：为了进一步提高对芋疫病预测预报,科学指导生产上的防治,应用最小二乘法、频次分布、聚集度指标、m^(*)-m回归分析和Taylor幂法则等对病株的空间分布型进行了分析。结果表明:当田间芋疫病病株率在0.427~0.513时,病株田间分布属聚集分布;当田间芋疫病病株率在0.720~0.820时,病株田间分布属均匀分布。此外其病株空间分布的基本成分是个体群,病株个体间相互吸引,病株在大田中存在明显的发病中心,且病株个体的空间格局随着病株密度的提高越趋均匀分。在此基础上,提出了Iwao最适理论抽样模型N=232.3783/m-87.9438,并建立序贯抽样模型T0(N)=0.3689N±1.7177 N,即:调查株数N时,若累计病株率超过上界可定为防治对象田,若累计病株率未达到下界时,可定为不防治田,若累计病株率在上下界之间,则应继续调查,直到最大样本数m0=0.3689时,也即病株率15%,所需抽样数542株止。To further improve the prediction of taro disease, guide the disease prevention and control in production, the spatial distribution patterns of diseased plants were analyzed by least square method, frequency distribution, aggregation index, m^(*)-M regression analysis and Taylor power law. The results showed that: when the disease rate of taro in field was 0.427-0.513, the distribution of disease plants in the field belonged to the aggregation distribution. When the disease rate of taro in field was 0.720-0.820, the disease plants were evenly distributed in field. In addition, the basic component of the diseased plants’ spatial distribution was the individual group, the diseased plants attracted each other, the diseased plants had obvious disease centers in field, and the spatial pattern of the diseased plants tended to be more uniform with the density increase of diseased plants. Based on this study, the Iwao optimal theoretical sampling model N = 232.3783/m-87.9438 was proposed, and the sequential sampling model T0(N) = 0.3689 N ± 1.7177 N was established. That is to say, when investigating the number of N plants, if the cumulative disease rate exceeds the upper limit, it can be determined as the control object field. If the cumulative disease rate does not reach the lower limit, it can be defined as non control field. If the cumulative disease rate is between the upper and lower bounds, the investigation should be continued until the maximum sample number m0=0.3689, the disease rate is 15%, and the required sample number is 542.

关 键 词：芋疫病 空间分布型 最适理论抽样模型 序贯抽样模型 抽样数 

分 类 号：S431.3[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]