绿色创新是否适应气候变化:中国专利和GHG排放数据的实证  

Whether green innovation can adapt to climate change:an empirical study of China’s patent and GHG emission data

作　　者：张意翔[1] 成金华[1] 徐卓程 宋琼 李威龙 潘婷 ZHANG Yixiang;CHENG Jinhua;XU Zhuocheng;SONG Qiong;LI Weilong;PAN Ting(Research Center of Resource and Environmental Economics,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan Hubei 430074;School of Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen Fujian 361005)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学资源环境经济研究中心,湖北武汉430074 [2]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2021年第1期48-56,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社科基金专项“加快生态文明体制改革,建设美丽中国研究”(批准号:18VSJ037);国家社会科学基金项目“城市群雾霾污染对公共健康影响的空间效应和治理策略研究”(批准号:17BJY063)。

摘　　要：气候变化是全球面临的最大环境挑战,中国根据自身发展的实际情况提出力争在2030年前达到碳高峰,努力争取在2060年前实现碳中和,要想实现该目标就必须减少包含二氧化碳在内的温室气体排放量。考虑到我国经济和能源系统所具有的高碳化特征,绿色创新驱动被认为是实现碳中和目标的重要途径之一,也是我国主动适应气候变化的主要措施之一。现有研究主要分析绿色创新对气候变化的影响,很少研究绿色创新是否适应气候变化的要求。本文基于2000—2017年我国30个省级行政单位的绿色技术专利与GHG数据,通过Logistic模型、负二项式固定效应回归及自回归分布滞后等模型分析了绿色创新对气候变化的适应程度,该适应程度用气候变化对绿色创新的影响程度表示,两者成正相关关系。研究发现:(1)气候变化会诱导绿色创新,但诱发效应较小。尽管CO2EG的影响最大,但也只有0.3%左右。(2)不同GHG排放源对绿色创新的影响程度不同,天然气和煤炭消费产生的碳排放与之成正比,石油和其他GHG与之成反比。(3)区域碳排放水平与绿色技术创新效应成正比。(4)不同来源的投资对绿色技术专利数量的影响具有异质性,私人投资比政府投资更能提升绿色创新的适应程度。最后,从以下几个方面提出了提高绿色创新对气候变化适应程度的若干建议:(1)中央政府应通过减税和补贴等手段刺激地方政府进行绿色创新投资;(2)实行差异化行业创新政策,更加致力于促进旨在减少煤和天然气碳排放的技术研发;(3)加大新能源投资;(4)刺激私人投资,完善投资结构,把有限的私人投资投入到能源和电信等行业,提高私人公共投资的创新效率。Climate change has become the world’s largest environmental challenge.Therefore,China must reduce its greenhouse gas emissions including carbon emissions if it is to achieve high-quality economic and social development.Based on this,China has proposed to reach a carbon peak by 2030 and make carbon neutral by 2060.Due to the high carbonization characteristics of the economy and energy system,green innovation drive is considered to be one of the important ways to achieve carbon neutrality and green development,and also one of the main measures to actively adapt to climate change in China.The existing research mainly analyzes the impact of green innovation on climate change,and seldom studies whether green innovation has adapted to climate change.Based on the patent data of 30 provincial administrative units in China from 2000 to 2017,the adaptation degree of green innovation to climate change was analyzed by the logistic model,negative binomial fixed effect regression and autoregressive distribution lag model.The adaptation degree was expressed by the impact degree of climate change on green innovation.The results showed that:①To some extent,climate change in China would induce green technology innovation,but the effect was small.Although CO2EG had the largest effect,it was only around 0.3%.②Different GHG emission sources had different effects on the green innovation.The carbon emissions generated by natural gas and coal consumption had positive correlation with it,while the emissions generated by oil and other GHGs had negative correlation with it.③The level of regional carbon emissions was proportional to the effect of green technological innovation.④The influences of different sources of investment on the number of green technology patents were heterogeneous,and private investment could improve the adaptability of green innovation more than the government one.Finally,some suggestions were put forward to improve the adaptation of green innovation to climate change from the following aspects:①The centr

关 键 词：气候变化 专利 创新 CO_(2)排放 GHG排放 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]