能源冲击与中国宏观经济波动:基于存量流量一致性投入产出模型的数值实验  

Energy shock and China’s macroeconomic fluctuations:a numerical experiment based on stock-flow consistent input-output framework

作　　者：周潮 郭卫香[1,2] 孙慧[1,2] ZHOU Chao;GUO Weixiang;SUN Hui(Xinjiang Centre for Innovation Management Research,Xinjiang University,Urumqi Xinjiang 830001,China;School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi Xinjiang 830001,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830001 [2]新疆大学经济与管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830001

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2021年第1期68-77,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“新疆资源型产业污染集聚、损益偏离与包容性绿色增长”(批准号:71963030);新疆高校科研计划项目“新疆绿色低碳循环发展创新团队”(批准号:XJEDU2017T003)。

摘　　要：结合后凯恩斯主义经济学的存量流量一致性(SFC)模型、投入产出表(IO)分析、生态宏观经济学和离散动力系统的相关理论,基于我国的实际数据,提出存量流量一致性投入产出(SFC-IO)分析框架建模方法,把经济和环境作为统一的宏观经济-生态系统来进行研究,将能源使用和环境保护纳入宏观经济学模型之中,同时对金融体系中的货币流、实体经济中的商品流及自然环境中的物质流进行数值模拟分析。研究发现:一是能源价格加成上升将导致能源价格上涨,能源消费减少导致能源需求减少,而能源需求减少又推动了工资下降,进而使得总消费减少,通过投入产出表各部门之间的相互联系,乘数效应发挥显著作用,放大了由于能源价格冲击而导致的经济衰退的负面影响。二是能源投入回报(EROI)上升使得能源部门的中间投入增加以及能源价格上涨,居民对能源的相对消耗增加,由于部门之间的相互关联,向居民和政府销售的能源和产品数量下降,导致中间产品在总产量中所占的比例增大,导致能源总消耗增加,最终需求下降。三是模拟计算出我国能源效率提高的总回弹效应为34.2%,发现通过技术进步,使得能源消费节省水平提高50%,但是通过回弹效应模拟,发现能源消费总量并没有预期减半,普通品价格下降4.2%,能源品价格下降12.4%,实际上会导致能源消费增加,使得能源投入减少,导致直接的回弹效应。Based on the real data of China,this study proposes a stock-flow consistent input-output(SFC-IO)analytical framework and its modelling approach,integrating the post-Keynesian stock-flow consistent(SFC)model,input-output(IO)analysis,and relevant theories of ecological macroeconomics and discrete dynamical systems.This framework treats economy and environment as a unified macro ecosystem,incorporating energy usage and the environmental protection into the macroeconomic model while conducting numerical simulations on the currency flow of the financial system,the goods flow of the real economy,and the material flow of the natural environment.The results show that:First,the energy price markup will lead to a higher energy price,and shrinking energy consumption will result in lower demand for energy,pushing down the wages and further the total consumption.This economic recession caused by the energy price shock is aggravated due to the multiplier effect through intersectoral linkages.Second,a rise in the return of energy input(EROI)increases the intermediate input of the energy sector,the energy price,and then the relative cost of household energy consumption.Because of intersectoral linkages,the quantity of energy products sold to households and governments decreases,leading to a larger proportion of intermediates in the gross output,an increase of total energy consumption,and finally a falling demand.Third,our simulation results indicate that the total rebound effect is 34.2%in improving China’s energy efficiency.We have found that the level of energy-saving could be promoted by 50%through technology advancement.The simulation on the rebound effect,however,shows that the energy consumption is not halved as expected.When the prices of ordinary goods and energy goods drop by 4.2 per cent and 12.4 per cent,respectively,the energy consumption would actually increase,and the energy input would decrease,leading to direct rebound effects.

关 键 词：后凯恩斯主义经济学 生态宏观经济学 存量流量一致性模型 投入产出分析 能源价格冲击 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]