基于DEM-SRM和盲数理论的边坡地震稳定可靠性分析  

Reliability Analysis for Seismic Stability of Slopes Based on DEM-SRM and Blind Data Theory

作　　者：刘焕玉[1] 魏汝明[1] 胡文奎[1] 程爱华[1] 陈训龙[2] Liu Huanyu;Wei Ruming;Hu Wenkui;Cheng Aihua;Chen Xunlong(Jinan Geotechnical Investigation and Surveying Research Institute,Ji’nan 250000,China;Institute of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]济南市勘察测绘研究院,山东济南250000 [2]华中科技大学岩土与地下工程研究所,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《城市勘测》2021年第1期190-194,199,共6页Urban Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying

摘　　要：针对地震作用和边坡岩土体参数的多种不确定性,采用离散元强度折减法和盲数理论提出了一种边坡地震稳定可靠性分析方法。首先,基于离散元强度折减法和拟静力法计算分析地震作用下边坡的安全稳定状态,并结合响应面法和蒙特卡洛法建立地震边坡的极限状态方程,其次,运用盲数理论对边坡岩土体参数进行盲数化处理,并进一步建立地震边坡的安全系数盲数模型,最后,通过MATLAB编写相应的计算程序实现安全系数盲数解的快速输出和分析。算例分析表明:本文方法可计算出边坡总体可信度概率分布,可以根据实际工程等级情况及抗震要求计算出任一安全系数值所对应的可靠度值,可以更全面地分析地震边坡的安全稳定状态,进而以此来指导设计边坡抗震与加固方案。A reliability analysis method is presented based on DEM-based strength reduction method and blind data theory,which considers the earthquake action and a variety of uncertainties of parameters of rock and soil in slopes.Firstly,the state of safety and stability for slopes was calculated and analysed based on DEM-based strength reduction method and pseudo static method,and with the response surface method and Monte Carlo method,the limit state equation of seismic slopes was established.Secondly,the parameters of rock and soil in slopes were processed using blind data theory,and the blind data model of safety factor of seismic slopes was further established.Lastly,the corresponding calculation program was compiled by MATLAB,which can realize the fast output and analysis of the blind data solution of safety factor.The calculated results showed that:This proposed method is effective and feasible,the calculation results are more reliable and valuable for reference,and safer for engineering;This proposed method can calculate the probability distribution of the overall reliability of slopes,thus,the reliability value corresponding to any safety factor value can be calculated according to the actual engineering grade and seismic requirements,and the state of safety and stability for seismic slopes can be analysed more comprehensively,and then it can be used to guide the design of anti-seismic and reinforcement scheme of slope.

关 键 词：边坡 地震稳定性 可靠性 盲数理论 离散元强度折减法 拟静力法 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学] P642.27[天文地球—固体地球物理学]