需求约束、货币政策体系与经济增长——“有限需求”假设下经济增长“负向螺旋”机制  

Demand Constraint, Monetary Policy System and Economic Growth:A “Negative Spiral” Mechanism of Economic Growth under the Assumption of “Limited Demand”

作　　者：周炎 陈昆亭 庞尧[3] Zhou Yan;Chen Kunting;Pang Yao(Yunnan University of Finance and Economics;Zhejiang University of Technology)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学金融学院,650221 [2]云南财经大学经济学院,650221 [3]浙江工业大学经济学院,310014

出　　处：《经济评论》2020年第6期60-71,共12页Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“后危机时代全球金融经济周期理论新发展及应用问题研究”(项目编号:16ZDA030);国家自然科学基金项目“长期经济增长可持续性条件及路径稳定性研究”(项目编号:71673252)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于"有限需求"假设来研究经济增长问题。在传统理论中,消费需求被假定为综合的终端产品,掩盖了具体商品需求的"有限"特征。在供给过剩而有效需求不足和金融经济特征显著的经济环境中,经济增长的实现与传统增长理论重在供给侧因素的研究所刻画的情形有显著不同,传统增长理论无法分析、判断和指导现实经济发展。本文结合当前全球大范围疫情冲击下的具体经济现象和前沿研究,尝试分析两个方面的问题:一是有限需求假设对经济增长理论的影响;二是在金融经济特征环境中金融冲击等因素影响长期增长的机制。本文提出了一种解释近年以美国为主的西方经济持续衰落的"负向螺旋"机制,并结合研究针对中国经济实际状况提出发展建议。This paper studies economic growth based on the hypothesis of "limited demand". In traditional theories, consumer demand is assumed to be an integrated final product, which masks the "limited" feature of the demand for specific commodities. In the economic environment where supply is excessed, effective demand is insufficient and financial economic characteristics are significant, the real economic growth is significantly different from that in traditional theories, which focus on studying supply-side factors and cannot analyze, judge and guide the development of real economy. This paper combines the specific economic phenomena with the frontier research under the global pandemic, tries to analyze two problems:(1) The impact of the limited demand assumption on growth theory;(2) The mechanism between financial shock and long-term growth. This paper proposes a "negative spiral" mechanism to explain the continuous decline of western economies represented by America in recent years. It also puts forward some suggestions based on China’s current economy.

关 键 词：有限需求 金融经济特征 危机形成机制 价值体系稳定 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F822.0