“分析为中心”的情报方法及其对恐怖主义风险评估的启示  

The"Analysis-Centric"Approach in Intelligence Analysis and Its Enlightenment for Terrorism Risk Assessment

作　　者：张力伟[1] 赵吉 李慧杰 Zhang Liwei;Zhao Ji;Li Huijie(School of Public Administration,Jilin University,Changchun 130012;School of International and Public Affairs,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学行政学院,长春130012 [2]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海200030

出　　处：《情报杂志》2021年第2期83-89,共7页Journal of Intelligence

摘　　要：[目的/意义]有效的风险评估有赖于对风险信息的准确分析,“信息为中心”的情报分析方法在一定程度上不利于信息的知识整合,因此可以采用“分析为中心”的情报方法提升风险决策的科学性。[方法/过程]在回顾反思“信息为中心”的情报分析方法基本过程与特征的基础上,解释“分析为中心”情报分析方法的机制与优势,探讨这种分析方法在恐怖主义风险评估中的应用价值。[结果/结论]“分析为中心”的情报分析有利于对来自不同领域的风险信息进行综合研判,并能够在协同分析中消弭认知偏见,保证风险评估的科学性与风险决策的有效性。但其具体效用仍需要在实践中加以检验。[Purpose/Significance]Effective risk assessment is dependent on the accurate analysis of risk information.The"information-centric"approach,to an extent,has its disadvantage in the knowledge integration of information.Therefore,the"analysis-centric"approach can be used in intelligence analysis in order to improve the scientificity of risk decision-making.[Method/Process]Based on the literature review of the process and character of the"information-centric"approach,this article elaborates on the mechanism and merits of the"analysis-centric"approach and further discusses the value of the approach in risk assessment for terrorism.[Result/Conclusion]The"analysis-centric"approach is capable of analyzing risk information from various domains comprehensively and eliminating the cognitive bias via the collaborative analysis,which ensures the scientificity of risk assessment and the effectiveness of risk decision-making.However,its efficacy should be further tested in practices.

关 键 词：分析为中心 信息为中心 情报分析 风险评估 风险决策 

分 类 号：G203[文化科学—传播学]