美国实战威慑核战略:理论、历史与现实  

The US Nuclear War-fighting Deterrence Strategy:Theory,History and Reality

作　　者：江天骄 JIANG Tianjiao(Fudan Development Institute(FDDI),Shanghai,200433)

机构地区：[1]复旦发展研究院,上海200433

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2021年第2期28-60,157,158,共35页Journal of International Security Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“总体国家安全观视野下的网络治理体系研究”(项目编号:17ZDA106);教育部青年基金项目“全球网络空间的战略稳定性研究”(项目编号:19YJCGJW004)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：以《不扩散核武器条约》为基础的国际防扩散制度已经走过了半个世纪,如今却面临日益严峻的挑战。对于全球防扩散与核裁军进程出现的倒退,美国负有特殊的责任。这突出表现在三个相互关联的理论、历史和现实问题上。首先,经典核威慑理论并不能充分解释美国矛盾的核战略和防扩散政策。以实战威慑和延伸威慑构成的绝对自由核战略才是长期指导美国核政策实践的根本。其次,通过对20世纪50~60年代的冷战史进行再挖掘可以得知,一般认为的美国核战略在主张核武器用于实战的保守派和主张核武器仅用于威慑的自由派之间摇摆,实际上夸大了自由派对美国核战略的影响。美国在大多数总统任期内将绝对自由核战略作为拱卫其构建战后国际秩序和获得对苏联战略优势的关键。最后,核武器与非核武器的互动是当前核时代的一个显著特征。随着新技术革命的兴起,传统的核威慑和战略稳定正面临极为复杂的挑战。然而,美国依旧以核常融合、攻防兼备构筑绝对优势,并以新兴技术、跨域威慑确保全面制胜。其结果持续引发由核武器与常规武器互动、谋求技术先发优势以及追求绝对自由所导致的"三元悖论",从而对全球战略稳定和国际防扩散制度产生进一步冲击。The international non-proliferation regime with the Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT)as its mainstay has been evolving for half a century.Now,it is facingunprecedented challenges.It should be noted that the United States bears a particular responsibility for the retrogression in the process of global non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament.This can be examined from three interrelated perspectives.Firstly,the classic nuclear deterrence theory cannot fully explain the contradictory nuclear strategy and non-proliferation policy of the United States.The absolute free nuclear strategy featuring war-fighting deterrence and extended deterrence has always been the fundamental principle guiding the US nuclear policies.Secondly,the re-exploration of the Cold War history during the 1950 s and 1960 s reveals that the general view that the US nuclear strategy swung between the conservatives who advocate for nuclear weapons to be used for actual combat and the liberals who advocate for nuclear weapons to be used only for deterrence has exaggerated the influence of the liberals over the US nuclear strategy.Throughout most of the presidencies,the United States tends to regard absolute free nuclear strategy as the key to safeguarding the postwar international order and gaining strategic advantages over the Soviet Union.Finally,the interaction between nuclear weapons and non-nuclear weapons has become a prominent feature of the current nuclear era.With the emerging new technological revolution,traditional nuclear deterrence and strategic stability are facing extremely complex challenges.Against this backdrop,the United States still puts much emphasis on the integration of nuclear and conventional weapons as well as the combination of offensive and defensive actions to secure its absolute predominance over other countries and relies on emerging technologies and cross-domain deterrence to ensure its overall victory.As a result,the"ternary paradoxes"triggered by the interaction between nuclear weapons and conventional weapons,the pursu

关 键 词：美国核战略 防扩散制度 纯威慑 实战威慑 新技术革命 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系] E817[政治法律—政治学]