机动车限行政策对缓解交通拥堵的成效分析——来自西安市2016—2019年实证探索  

Analysis on the Effect of Vehicle Restriction on Traffic Congestion Alleviation——Empirical Exploration from 2016—2019 in Xi’an

作　　者：王振振 雍岚[2] 党成杰 WANG Zhenzhen;YONG Lan;DANG Chengjie(School of Public Administration and Policy,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Public Policy and Administration,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京100872 [2]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第1期79-88,共10页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：中国人民大学“中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金”。

摘　　要：交通拥堵已成为城市居民普遍头痛的难题,是制约城市经济社会发展的重要因素。从国内外实践来看,机动车限行政策成为普遍公认的重要举措,但对于其能否有效缓解交通拥堵一直存在争议。为能够科学评估限行政策的实施效果,以西安市为例,选取2016年11月1日—2019年12月31日工作日的时间序列数据,利用多元线性回归模型实证检验交通限行政策缓解城市交通拥堵的成效。研究发现:(1)限行政策实施可有效缓解交通拥堵,但随着限行政策实施周期的延长,政策效果呈逐渐减弱趋势;(2)与双尾号限行相比,单双号限行政策缓解交通拥堵效果更加明显;(3)与晚高峰相比,受基本交通需求之外的派生需求影响,限行政策在早高峰缓解交通拥堵的效果更为明显。Traffic congestion has become a common headache for urban residents and an important factor restricting the economic and social development of the city. From the practice at home and abroad, the motor vehicle restriction policy has become a generally recognized important measure, but whether the motor vehicle restriction policy can effectively alleviate traffic congestion has been controversial. In order to evaluate the implementation effect of traffic restriction policy scientifically, this study takes Xi’an as an example, selects the time series data from November 1, 2016 to December 31, 2019, and uses multiple linear regression model to test the effect of traffic restriction policy on easing urban traffic congestion. The results show that:(1) the implementation of the policy can effectively alleviate traffic congestion, but with the extension of the implementation cycle of the policy, the effect of the policy is gradually weakened.(2) Compared with double tailed traffic restriction, the effect of single and double tailed traffic restriction is more obvious.(3) Compared with the late peak, influenced by the derived demand beyond the basic traffic demand, the effect of traffic restriction policy is more obvious in the early peak. Finally, according to the research conclusion, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to optimize the traffic restriction policy to alleviate traffic congestion.

关 键 词：限行政策 交通拥堵 政策效应 

分 类 号：X734[环境科学与工程—环境工程]