"特朗普税改政策"的溢出效应及中国的应对策略  

The Spillover Effect of"Trump's Tax Reform Policy" and China's Response Strategy

作　　者：张锦冬[1] 皇甫建华 余磊 ZHANG Jin-dong;HUANGFU Jian-hua;YU Lei(School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;China Petroleum Planning Institute,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070 [2]中国石油规划总院,北京100083

出　　处：《税务与经济》2021年第1期22-29,共8页Taxation and Economy

基　　金：2019年教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目“京津冀一体化视域下北京绿色发展的空间治理体系研究”(项目编号:19YJA630074)。

摘　　要：特朗普税改使美国成为税收洼地,各国为争夺国际资本竞相效仿降税,加剧了全球税收竞争,为世界经济复苏增加了更多的不确定性.因此,有必要通过构建利润转移视角的税收竞争模型,揭示特朗普税改对全球经济产生溢出效应的作用机制及赤字约束问题,并运用一般均衡模型(CGE)模拟特朗普税改对世界经济溢出效应的长短期影响.特朗普税改是以邻为壑的经济政策,但长期内对中国等世界主要经济体的负面影响不断减弱,并会对出口产生一定的正面影响.因此,我国应构建国际税务交互管理体制,强化企业税收激励的法制保障,完善税改冲击的应急运行机制.The United States is in grip of tax depression due to"Trump's tax reform".However,in order to compete for international capital,many countries copy this policy and cut taxes,which intensifies global tax competition and adds more uncertainty to the world economy.Therefore,a tax competition model from the perspective of profit transfer should be constructed in an effort to reveal the spillover effect of Trump's tax reform on the global economy and deficit constraints.Additionally,the general equilibrium model(CGE)is applied to simulate the long-term and short term effects of spillover effects of Trump's tax reform on the world economy.Trump's tax reform is a beggar-thy-neighbor economic policy,but its negative impact on China and other major world economies will weaken in the long term,and it will have a certain positive impact on exports.Therefore,firstly,it is important for China to build an international tax interactive management system.Secondly,it is necessary to strengthen the legal protection of corporate tax incentives.Finally,it is crucial to improve the emergency operation mechanism of tax reform.

关 键 词：特朗普税改 溢出效应 国际税收竞争模型 

分 类 号：JF810.422