基于概率风险评估的导弹武器系统可靠性建模与分析  

Reliability Modeling and Analysis of Missile Weapon System Based on PRA

作　　者：王鑫 陈金豹 杨卓鹏[1] 杨超[1] 马远青 侯俊杰[1] Wang Xin;Chen Jinbao;Yang Zhuopeng;Yang Chao;Ma Yuanqing;Hou Junjie(China Aerospace Academy of Systems Science and Engineering,Beijing 100048,China;Rocket Force Equipment Department,Beijing 100085,China)

机构地区：[1]中国航天系统科学与工程研究院,北京100048 [2]火箭军装备部,北京100085

出　　处：《战术导弹技术》2020年第6期112-119,共8页Tactical Missile Technology

摘　　要：针对某型导弹武器系统作战任务剖面复杂、参试产品多样等特点,提出一种利用概率风险评估技术开展可靠性建模与评估的方法。根据典型作战任务剖面构建事件树模型,结合任务剖面各阶段参与产品构建故障树模型;综合运用单机级基本事件的可靠性数据和系统级功能事件的补充试验或仿真数据,应用贝叶斯分析确定功能事件可靠性;利用重要度排序识别薄弱环节,为降低系统风险提供决策支撑。该方法还可以进一步推广应用于卫星、运载火箭等系统的可靠性评估。Aiming at the complexity of operational mission profiles and the diversity of test products for the missile weapon system,a method of probabilistic risk assessment(PRA)is proposed for reliability modeling and evaluation.The event tree is modeled based on the typical operational mission profile,and the fault trees are modeled based on the products in the mission profile.By combing the reliability data of single-machine-level basic events and the test data of system-level functional events,a Bayesian updating method is applied for reliability of system-level functional events.The ranking of importance is used to identify weakness and the decision strategies are presented for reducing risks.This method can be further applied for the reliability evaluation of satellites,carrier rockets and other systems.

关 键 词：概率风险评估 可靠性建模 导弹武器系统 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]