产品多样化对“一带一路”沿线国家贸易条件的影响  

Impact of Product Diversification on Terms of Trade:Based on the Empirical Analysis of the Countries along the Belt and Road

作　　者：邓启明[1,2] 曹钰敏 金祥荣 DENG Qiming;CAO Yumin;JIN Xiangrong(不详)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学商学院,浙江宁波315211 [2]闽江学院经济与管理学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《国际商务研究》2021年第2期65-78,共14页International Business Research

基　　金：福州市社科规划重点项目(项目编号:2019FZB06);福建省社会科学规划项目(项目编号:FJ2019B034)。

摘　　要：本文以1998~2017年"一带一路"沿线国家贸易为基础,首先测算和比较其贸易条件的发展变化情况,接着用动态面板系统GMM法检验产品多样化对贸易条件的具体影响。结果表明:近年沿线国家的贸易条件总体良好,大部分沿线国家基于产品种类变化的贸易条件比传统方法测算结果更好,但不同国家间的差异较大;产品多样化能够改善贸易条件,但不同种类产品多样化对贸易条件的改善效果也有一定差异;此外,技术进步和经济增长对贸易条件都有一定改善作用。未来中国不仅要创新增长方式,不断增强自身经济实力、改善贸易利益、提升国际地位,而且要扎实推进与"一带一路"沿线国家的经贸合作,更加注重"因国制宜",实现共同进步。This article is based on the trade between the countries along the Belt and Road from 1998 to 2017.It first measures and compares the development and changes of their terms of trade,and then uses the dynamic panel system GMM method to test the specific impact of product diversification on the terms of trade.The results show that the terms of trade of the countries along the route have generally been good in recent years.Most of the countries along the route have better terms of trade based on changes in product types than traditional methods,but the differences between different countries are large.Product diversification can improve the terms of trade,but differentces exist.The effect of diversified products on the improvement of terms of trade also has certain differences.In addition,technological progress and economic growth have certain effects on improving the terms of trade.In the future,China must not only innovate growth methods to continuously enhance our economic strength,improve trade interests,and enhance international status,but also solidly promote economic and trade cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road,and pay more attention to adapting to national conditions to achieve common progress.

关 键 词：贸易条件 产品多样化 影响 创新增长方式 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F746.2[经济管理—国际贸易] F746.9[经济管理—产业经济]