秋季北极海冰变化对长江中下游地区冬季气温的影响  

Effects of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice Change on Winter Temperature in the Middle and Low Reaches of the Yangtze River

作　　者：张建军 张剑明[2] 赵新宇[3] 廖玉芳[4] 范嘉智 ZHANG Jianjun;ZHANG Jianming;ZHAO Xinyu;LIAO Yufang;FAN Jiazhi(Key Lab of Hunan Province for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation,Changsha 410118,China;Hunan Provincial Climate Center,Changsha 410118,China;Tonghua Meteorological Bureau of Jilin Province,Tonghua 134000,Jilin,China;Institute of Meteorological Science of Hunan Province,Changsha 410118,China;Hunan Branch of China Meteorological Administration Training Center,Changsha 410125,China)

机构地区：[1]气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室,湖南长沙410118 [2]湖南省气候中心,湖南长沙410118 [3]吉林省通化市气象局,吉林通化134000 [4]湖南省气象科学研究所,湖南长沙410118 [5]中国气象局气象干部培训学院湖南分院,湖南长沙410125

出　　处：《干旱气象》2021年第1期8-14,共7页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：湖南省气象局2016/2017年气象预报业务能力建设专项(YBNL16-11);中国气象局2019年预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-079);湖南省气象局2020年预报员专项(XQKJ20C011)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用英国哈德莱中心海冰密集度资料,通过相关、合成等统计方法分析秋季北极海冰变化对长江中下游地区冬季气温的影响,发现拉普捷夫海以北及东西伯利亚海以东海区的海冰密集度变化可作为预测长江中下游地区冬季气温的前兆信号。当拉普捷夫海以北及东西伯利亚海以东海区海冰密集度偏高时,欧亚中高纬中部地区2 m气温经向梯度增大,乌拉尔山地区阻塞偏弱,欧亚中高纬以纬向环流为主,长江中下游冬季气温偏高,反之亦然。Based on sea ice concentration data from Hadley Center of UK,the effects of autumn Arctic sea ice change on winter temperature in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River(MLRYR)had been analyzed through synthesis,correlation and other statistical methods.It was found that the variation of sea ice concentration in the north of the Laptev Sea and the east of East Siberian Sea could be used as a precursive signal to predict winter temperature in the MLRYR.When sea ice concentration in the north of the Laptev Sea and the east of East Siberian Sea was higher in autumn,the meridional gradient of two-meter temperature was bigger in winter in midland of the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia,and the blocking high in the Ural Mountain was weaker,there was mainly zonal circulation over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia,and air temperature was higher in the MLRYR,and vice versa.

关 键 词：海冰密集度 长江中下游 冬季气温 拉普捷夫海 东西伯利亚海 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]