人民币名义汇率与全要素生产率动态演进  

Dynamic Evolution of RMB Nominal Exchange Rate and TFP

作　　者：林楠[1] LIN Nan(Institute of Finance and Banking,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所,北京100710

出　　处：《经济与管理》2021年第2期62-70,共9页Economy and Management

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(18BJL108)。

摘　　要：货币国际化的历史经验表明,货币走强与全要素生产率增长历史峰值息息相关,伴随全要素生产率增长从峰值回落,汇率动态增强。结合我国实体经济与金融相互协调下的生产能力扩张与货币化进程,揭示全要素生产率指数与人民币名义汇率及其动态变化之间的相互关联与影响机理。通过人民币汇率、全要素生产率指数及资本形成和货币化进程的联立方程求解,系统提供由其联合形成的人民币汇率动态演进。在本质上,人民币汇率动态,是与中国实体经济生产能力扩张和货币化进程相伴而行的动态演进过程。研究结果表明,从不同情景看:(1)本币汇率升值对应的是资本形成的快速扩张,货币化进程不断加速;(2)本币贬值对应的是生产能力的缓慢形成和货币化的逐步提升;(3)人民币汇率逐步趋向均衡汇率,既促进中国经济增长和发展方式转变,也是经济新常态趋向长期均衡稳态之必然。From the historical experience of currency internationalization,the strengthening of currency is closely related to its historical peak of TFP growth,and the exchange rate dynamics increasingly with the decrease of TFP growth from the peak.Combined with the process of production capacity expansion and monetization under the coordination of real economy and finance in China,this paper reveals the correlation and influence mechanism between the TFP index and RMB nominal exchange rate and their dynamic changes.By solving the simultaneous equations of the RMB exchange rate,TFP index,capital formation,and monetization process,the system provides the dynamic evolution of the RMB exchange rate formed by them.In essence,the dynamic exchange rate of RMB is a dynamic evolution process accompanied by the expansion of production capacity and monetization of China's real economy.From the perspective of scenario analysis,(1)the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate corresponds to the rapid expansion of the capital formation and the acceleration of monetization;(2)the depreciation of RMB corresponds to the slow formation of production capacity and the gradual improvement of monetization;(3)the gradual trend of RMB exchange rate towards equilibrium exchange rate not only promotes the transformation of China's economic growth and development model,but also the trend of the new normal economy towards long-term equilibrium and stability the necessity of the state.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 全要素生产率 动态演进 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]