基于STAMP-PageRank的铁路危险品运输事故分析方法  

Analysis Method of Railway Dangerous Goods Transportation Accident Based on STAMP-PageRank

作　　者：尹德志 帅斌[1,2,3] 黄文成 YIN De-zhi;SHUAI Bin;HUANG Wen-cheng(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;National United Engineering Laboratory of Intergrated and Intelligent Transportation,Chengdu 611756,China;National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,成都611756 [2]综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,成都611756 [3]综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,成都611756

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2021年第1期71-80,共10页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71173177);国家铁路局科技计划项目(KF2013-020,KF2014-041);西南交通大学研究生创新实验实践项目(YC201507103);西南交通大学研究生学术培养提升计划(跨学科创新培育)专题项目(2018KXK04)。

摘　　要：为深入探究铁路危险品运输事故致因,预防事故发生,提出了STAMP-PageRank铁路危险品运输事故分析方法。该方法可分为四个步骤:详细记录事故过程;绘制系统整体控制结构,根据事故过程绘制系统局部控制结构,分析各层控制结构的相关安全约束、不充分或不安全的控制行为及不充分或不安全控制行为的产生原因;利用PageRank算法计算各控制器对事故产生的贡献程度;提出系统改进方案。以1994年我国发生的一起铁路危险品运输事故为例验证该方法,结果表明:STAMPPageRank事故分析方法能够弥补原有STAMP模型不足,更清晰地解释铁路危险品运输事故产生的原因,从而提出更有效的事故预防方法。To explore intensively the causes of railway dangerous goods transportation accidents and the means of preventing them,a STAMP-PageRank railway dangerous goods transportation accident analysis method is proposed.The method can be divided into four steps:1)record the accident process in detail;2)illustrate both the overall and local control structures of the system according to the accident processes,and analyze security constraints,inadequate or unsafe control behaviors,and causes of inadequate or unsafe control behaviors at all levels of the control structure;3)use the PageRank algorithm to calculate the contribution of each controller to the accident;and 4)propose system improvement schemes.This method is verified by its use in the analysis of a 1994 railway dangerous goods transportation accident that occurred inChina. Results show that the proposed STAMP-PageRank accident analytical method can compensate for theshortcomings of the original model, can more adequately explain the causes of railway dangerous goodstransportation accidents, and can offer more effective accident prevention methods.

关 键 词：铁路危险品运输 事故分析 系统理论事故模型与过程 PAGERANK算法 

分 类 号：U297.83[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]