新冠肺炎疫情对邮轮经济的影响机制和政策分析  

Mechanisms Influencing the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Cruise Industry and Proposed Countermeasures

作　　者：吴琼[1] 张永锋[1,2] WU Qiong;ZHANG Yong-feng(College of Transport&Communications,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 200136,China;Shanghai International Shipping Institute,Shanghai 200082,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海200136 [2]上海国际航运研究中心,上海200082

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2021年第1期157-167,共11页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(20BJY177)。

摘　　要：为研究新冠肺炎疫情爆发对邮轮经济的影响机制,运用系统动力学理论,分析新冠肺炎疫情与邮轮产业收入的因果关系,构建因果关系图和流图,建立系统仿真方程。以A、B两国之间的邮轮市场为例,运用Vensim软件模拟疫情和邮轮产业收入的发展趋势,并进行方案模拟。仿真结果表明:出发地感染个体数量约为86324人,邮轮感染个体数量约为707人;停航措施能有效减少邮轮上感染人数,延后10天停航和延后20天停航的邮轮感染个体数量分别是现实停航时间邮轮感染个体数量的1.67倍和2.35倍,及时停航有利于控制疫情的传播,但无休止的停航有损邮轮产业收入;采取邮轮隔离措施,加强对邮轮旅客的管理以及做好邮轮在目的地港口的停靠工作,也能有效减少邮轮感染人数和目的地感染人数;采取邮轮补贴措施有利于复航后邮轮旅客数的增加,增加邮轮防控投入减少了复航后邮轮感染人数和目的地感染人数大幅增加的可能性,并且有利于邮轮产业收入的恢复。因此疫情后应当考虑及时让邮轮复航以减轻疫情对邮轮产业的打击。An analysis of the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the cruise industry is presented in this study.Specifically,system dynamics theory is applied,supported by causality diagrams,flow charts,and system simulation equations.Furthermore,we use the country A amd B cruise industry as an example,to model the impact of the transmission characteristics of COVID-19 on industry revenue.The results indicate that the number of infected individuals at the country of departure is approximately 86324,and the number of infected individuals at the cruise ship is approximately 707.The suspension measures are effective in reducing the number of infected people onboard cruise ships.The estimated number of infected individuals on cruise ships delayed by 10 and 20 days is 1.67 times and 2.35 times the number of infected individuals suspended on February 3,respectively.Therefore,timely suspension can mitigate the spread of the Covid-19;however, prolonged suspensions will damage cruise industry revenues significantly.Consequently, isolation measures to manage the interaction between cruise passengers, particularly duringdocking at destination ports, are imperative to reduce the number of infected people onboard and atdestination country. Additionally, the adoption of cruise subsidy measures is conducive to increasing thenumber of cruise passengers after the resumption of cruises. Increasing investment in cruise prevention andcontrol consequently reduces the risk of infection spread both onboard and at destination ports;consequently,this will aid the economic recovery of the cruise industry. Therefore, the resumption of cruises should beconsidered to alleviate the impact of the pandemic on the global cruise industry.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎 邮轮经济 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F551[经济管理—产业经济]