贝叶斯检验与颠覆性技术评价  

Evaluation of the Bayes Test and Disruptive Technology

作　　者：袁瑜容 蒋兴华 YUAN Yu-rong;JIANG Xing-hua(Zhongshan Institute of Modern Industrial Technology of SCUT,Zhongshan 528400,China;South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China)

机构地区：[1]中山市华南理工大学现代产业技术研究院,广东中山528400 [2]华南理工大学科学技术处,广东广州510640

出　　处：《哈尔滨学院学报》2021年第2期23-27,共5页Journal of Harbin University

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目,项目编号:19YJC880038;中山市协同创新专项项目,项目编号:2018C1016。

摘　　要：科学检验与科学评价关系密切相关,前者是后者的前提/基础,后者是对前者的反映。科学评价的对象是科学活动和科学研究活动,是科技资源配置与科技创新发展的重要依据,对科学实践具有指导意义。科学评价具有相对性和局限性,需要在指导实践的过程中不断进行完善。文章针对颠覆性技术创新的评审这一难题,尝试从贝叶斯检验理论出发,由检验决定评价的角度,寻求得到颠覆性技术评价的一个可行方式。Scientific inspection is closely related to scientific evaluation. The former is the premise/basis of the latter while the latter is the reflection of the former. The object of scientific evaluation is scientific activity and scientific research activity, which is an important basis for the allocation of scientific resources and the development of scientific innovation. Scientific evaluation has its relativity and limitation, which needs to be improved continuously in the process of guiding practice. Aiming at the problem of evaluation of disruptive technology innovation, this paper tries to find a feasible way to evaluate disruptive technology from the point of view of Bayes Test Theory and evaluation determined by test.

关 键 词：概率 贝叶斯检验 科学评价 颠覆性技术 

分 类 号：N02[自然科学总论—科学技术哲学] F124.3[经济管理—世界经济]