基于灰色系统理论对山生柳生长量的分析预测  

Grey system theory based analysis and prediction of Salix oritrepha growth

作　　者：袁莹 李强峰[1] 马成侠 YUAN Ying;LI Qiangfeng;MA Chengxia(Dept.of Agriculture and Forestry,College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China)

机构地区：[1]青海大学农牧学院农林系,青海西宁810016

出　　处：《甘肃农业大学学报》2021年第1期109-117,共9页Journal of Gansu Agricultural University

基　　金：青海高寒地区山生柳优良无性系选育及栽培因子适应性评价(2019-ZJ-7018).

摘　　要：【目的】为分析各立地因子对山生柳生长的影响,探究在不同立地条件及生长特征下山生柳的生长潜力,为山生柳灌木林的经营培育工作提供理论支撑.【方法】以青海省不同地区的山生柳灌木林为研究对象,在利用灰色关联分析法对林地质量进行综合评价的基础上,构建非等间距多变量灰色模型,对山生柳的新梢生长量进行预测.【结果】在海拔、坡向、坡度、坡位、土层厚度、全氮、有机质、有效磷和速效钾这九个立地因子中,对山生柳林地质量及山生柳生长状况影响最大的为海拔,权重为12.9%,影响最小的因子为速效钾,权重仅为8.6%;此外,建立的非等间距OBGM(1,4)模型的预测效果较好,优于传统的GM(1,1)模型和常用的Logistic模型.【结论】在山生柳造林工作中,可优先考虑对山生柳生长影响较大的海拔、坡向、土层厚度等因子,而OBGM模型可实际应用于其生长量的预测中,为山生柳灌木林的经营培育工作提供指导依据.【Objective】In order to analyze the influence of site factors on the growth of Salix oritrepha,explore its growth potential under different site conditions and growth characteristics,and provide theoretical support for the management and cultivation.【Method】A non-equidistant multivariate grey model was established to predict the growth of new shoot growth of S.oritrepha in different areas of Qinghai Province based on the comprehensive evaluation of forest quality by using grey correlation analysis.【Result】Among 9 site factors(altitude,aspect,slope,slope position,soil layer thickness,total nitrogen,organic matter,available phosphorus and available potassium),the most important factor affecting site quality and growth of S.oritrepha was altitude,with a weight of 12.9%,and the least important factor was available potassium,with a weight of only 8.6%.The established non-equidistant OBGM(1,4)model showed better prediction and was superior to the traditional GM(1,1)model and the Logistic model.【Conclusion】The priority can be given to factors such as altitude,aspect and soil thickness for plantation of S.oritrepha,and the non-equidistant OBGM(1,n)model can be practically used to predict its growth and provide theoretical guidance for the management and cultivation of S.oritrepha.

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 山生柳 新梢生长量 OBGM(1 n)模型 

分 类 号：S758[农业科学—森林经理学]