基于随机参数模型的平面信控交叉口非机动车左转设施安全分析  

Safety Analysis of Non-motorized Left Turning Facilities at Plane Signal Control Intersection Based on Stochastic Parameter Model

作　　者：杨晓春 韦凌翔[2] 廖明军 罗小萌[2] 唐辰佳 YANG Xiaochun;WEI Lingxiang;LIAO Mingjun;LUO Xiaomeng;TANG Chenjia(Security Office,Yancheng Institute of Technology,Yancheng 224051 China;School of Material Science and Engineering,Yancheng Institute of Technology,Yancheng 224051 China;Engineering Research Center of Road Disaster Prevention and Traffic Safety,Ministry of Education,Changsha 410076 China)

机构地区：[1]盐城工学院保卫处,江苏盐城224051 [2]盐城工学院材料科学与工程学院,江苏盐城224051 [3]道路灾变防治及交通安全教育部工程研究中心,湖南长沙410076

出　　处：《西华大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第2期56-62,共7页Journal of Xihua University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：江苏高校品牌专业建设工程资助项目(TAPP)(PPZY2015A025);长沙理工大学道路灾变防治及交通安全教育部工程研究中心开放基金资助项目(kfj150401)。

摘　　要：城市平面信控交叉口非机动车左转驾驶违法行为是路口发生交通事故的关键原因之一。针对非机动车左转现象,研究平面信控交叉口中非机动车的左转设施对信控交叉口交通安全性的影响。以盐城市平面信控交叉口为例,提取5个信控交叉口约50 h的视频数据,利用统计学的方法构建随机参数泊松交通冲突模型,分析左转非机动车的左转车速、左转交通量、左转间距、中心圈、机动车的左转导行线和交通冲突的关系。结果表明:左转车速、左转交通量、左转间距、中心圈4个变量系数估计结果参数服从正态分布;左转导行线、中心圈可显著降低交通冲突;左转车速、左转交通量和左转交通冲突呈现出显著正相关关系。The non-motorized left-turn driving violations at the city-level letter-controlled intersection are one of the key causes of traffic accidents.To this end,this work will study the impact of the left-turn facilities of non-motor vehicles in the plane-signalized intersection on the traffic safety of the signal-controlled intersections.For the Yancheng Plane Signal Control Intersection,we extracted video data from 5 signal-controlled intersections for about 50 hours,and used statistical methods to construct a traffic conflict model.By establishing a random parameter Poisson traffic conflict model,the relationship between traffic conflict and left-turn non-motorized left-turn speed,left-turn traffic volume,left-turn distance,center circle,left turn guide line of motor vehicle was analyzed.The results show that the parameters of the left-turn speed,left-turn traffic volume,left-turning distance and the central circle are estimated to follow a normal distribution,and turning the guide line and the center circle to the left can significantly reduce traffic conflicts,and there is a significant positive correlation between left-turn speed,left-turn traffic and left-turn traffic conflicts.

关 键 词：城市交通 交通冲突 随机参数泊松交通冲突模型 非机动车 左转交通设施 安全影响因素 

分 类 号：U491.5[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]