传统能源、可再生能源电力生产与经济增长--基于半参数结构全局向量自回归模型的实证分析  

Conventional Energy,Renewable Energy Electricity Generation and Economic Growth--Empirical Analysis Based on Global Vector Autoregressive Model of Semi-parametric Structure

作　　者：陈丛波 叶阿忠 CHEN Cong-bo;YE A-zhong(School of Economic&Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《华南理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第1期60-72,共13页Journal of South China University of Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“半参数全局向量自回归模型的理论研究及其应用”(71571046)。

摘　　要：中国地区的经济增长和传统能源、可再生能源电力生产存在较大区域差异和区域联系。经济增长和电力生产不仅在各地区内部存在复杂关系,而且在地区间也存在动态影响关系。为测算我国各地区和地区间经济增长与传统能源、可再生能源电力生产相互的动态影响关系,构建半参数结构全局向量自回归模型,使用广义脉冲响应函数和非参数方法测算各地区和地区间主要变量的相互响应。研究发现:“西电东输”主要地区内部经济增长与电力生产在长期没有显著的相互影响;北京、上海的经济增长与外地传统能源电力生产符合反馈假说,广东经济增长与可再生能源电力生产大省(自治区)四川、贵州、内蒙古的可再生能源电力生产符合保护假说。最后,围绕电力生产结构优化目标和区域性措施,提出一些政策建议。There are spatial differences and dependence between the economic growth of Chinese provinces and the electricity generation of conventional and renewable energy.The relationships between economic growth and electricity generation are not only complicated within each province,there is also a dynamic influence relationship between provinces.In order to measure the dynamic influence relationship between conventional energy,renewable energy electricity generation and economic growth within and between provinces,this paper constructs a semi-parametric structural GVAR(global vector autoregressive)model and empirically analyzes the major variables'mutual response within and between provinces by using generalized impulse response function and non-parametric method.The results show that there is no evidence of conspicuous interplay between the economic growth and the electricity generation within the main provinces involved in the“West-to-East Power Transmission Project”.At the interprovincial level,the relationship between the economic growth of Beijing and Shanghai and the conventional energy electricity generation in other provinces conforms to the feedback hypothesis,while the relationship between the economic growth of Guangdong and the renewable energy electricity generation of the major provinces with renewable energy electricity generation—Sichuan,Guizhou and Inner Mongolia,conforms to the conservation hypothesis.This paper also puts forward some policy suggestions on the optimization of electricity production structure and regional measures.

关 键 词：传统能源 可再生能源 电力生产 经济增长 半参数结构全局向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]