“冰上丝绸之路”对中国与沿线北极国家的经济效应研究  

The Economic Effect of the“Polar Silk Road”on China and the Arctic Countries along the Route

作　　者：关晓光 李振福 GUAN Xiaoguang;LI Zhenfu(College of Transportation and Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第1期45-57,共13页Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“东亚历史海域研究”(18ZDA207);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“通实力研究”(19FZZB013)。

摘　　要：北极地区海冰的加速消融使北极地区的潜在价值日益显著。“冰上丝绸之路”的开发利用对中国与沿线北极国家间的经济合作具有重要影响。在分析中国与沿线北极国家的双边贸易情况的基础上,运用全球贸易分析模型模拟分析了“冰上丝绸之路”对中国与沿线北极国家的经贸影响。结果显示,“冰上丝绸之路”对中国与加拿大、美国和部分北欧国家间的进出口贸易、区域内部的GDP以及贸易结构将产生积极影响。中国应把握机会,深入推进“冰上丝绸之路”倡议。The accelerated ablation of Arctic sea ice makes the potential value of the Arctic increasingly significant.The development of the“Polar Silk Road”has an important impact on the economic cooperation between China and the Arctic countries along the route.Based on the analysis of bilateral trade between China and the Arctic countries along the“Polar Silk Road”,this paper uses Global Trade Analysis Project to simulate and analyze the economic and trade impact of the“Polar Silk Road”on China and the Arctic countries along the route.The results show that the utilization of the“Polar Silk Road”will have a positive impact on the import and export trade between China and Canada,the United States and some Nordic countries as well as the GDP and trade structure within the region.China should seize the opportunity to further promote the“Polar Silk Road”initiative.

关 键 词：“冰上丝绸之路” 经济效应 全球贸易分析模型 沿线北极国家 

分 类 号：F551[经济管理—产业经济]