基于准则和层次化分析的失效风险评估方法  

Failure Risk Assessment Method Based on Criteria and Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：谭正超 李伟[2] TAN Zhengchao;LI Wei(Institute of Electronic Engineering,China Academy of Engineering Physics,Mianyang 621999,China;CEPREI,Guangzhou 510610,China)

机构地区：[1]中国工程物理研究院电子工程研究所,四川绵阳621999 [2]工业和信息化部电子第五研究所,广东广州510610

出　　处：《电子产品可靠性与环境试验》2021年第1期63-68,共6页Electronic Product Reliability and Environmental Testing

摘　　要：考虑到装备事故的严重后果,引信安全系统一直是引信研究中的重点课题之一。在传统的系统安全性评价中,主要通过故障底事件来计算安全系统中保险件的固有可靠性的安全失效概率,以此来评价引信能否满足安全失效指标。然而,由于引信安全系统中错综复杂的物理和电气连接,即使采用同样的保险件,当系统架构设计思想不同时,产生的失效风险也会有一定的差异。鉴于一般引信的安全性设计中,往往以设计准则的贯彻为主,首先,通过设计准则满足情况作为切入点,建立基于设计准则的安全性评估模型;然后,应用层次化分析方法进行优化分析。分析发现两种方法得到的分析结果相近,不过层次分析法的建模过程相对更客观一些。In view of the serious consequences of equipment accidents,fuze safety and arming system has always been one of the focuses in fuze research.In traditional system safety evaluation,the safety failure probability of the inherent reliability of the safety parts in the safety system is calculated through the fault bottom event to evaluate whether the fuze can meet the safety failure index.However,because of the complicated physical and electrical connections in the fuze safety system,even if the same safety parts are used,the failure risk will be different when the design idea of the system architecture is different.In view of the fact that in the general fuze safety design the implementation of design criteria is often the main focus,firstly,by taking the satisfaction of design criteria as an entry point,the safety evaluation model based on design criteria is established.Then,the optimization analysis is carried out by applying hierarchical analysis method.It is found that the results of the two methods are similar,but the modeling process of analytic hierarchy process is relatively objective.

关 键 词：引信安全系统 安全性评估 设计准则 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TB114.33[理学—概率论与数理统计]