陈述偏好中的政策与支付结果性效应研究  

The Research on the Effects of Policy and Payment Consequentialityon the Stated Preferences

作　　者：许志华[1,2] 李淑琴 李京梅 单菁竹[1] XU Zhi-hua;LI Shu-qin;LI Jing-mei;SHAN Jing-zhu(不详)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院 [2]教育部人文社科重点研究基地中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2021年第3期88-101,共14页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“海洋生态损害补偿标准与制度设计”(项目编号:16ZDA049);山东省社会科学规划研究项目“山东省海洋藻类灾害损害价值评估与应急管理机制研究”(项目编号:18DJJJ13)。

摘　　要：被调查者的结果性信念差异导致陈述偏好法有所争议。本文以青岛市公众浒苔治理偏好研究为例,将结果性信念区分为政策和支付结果性信念,以检验政策结果性与支付结果性对陈述偏好的异质性影响。结果表明:(1)与传统模型的对比表明,考虑结果性的选择模型能更真实有效地反映被调查者的陈述偏好,实现激励相容。且强政策和支付结果性信念人群均表现出较强浒苔治理要素偏好和较低治理成本敏感性,支付意愿显著更高,但政策和支付结果性两者在陈述偏好中并未表现出显著差异性影响。(2)青岛市居民对浒苔治理要素偏好顺序为分布范围、离岸距离、最大密度、持续时间,年均支付意愿分别为57.11元、48.33元、34.78元和29.11元。(3)女性和低收入人群表现出较高的浒苔治理方案偏好和结果性信念,年长人群表现出较低的浒苔治理方案偏好和结果性信念。研究可为陈述偏好问卷设计,实现激励相容提供理论借鉴,亦有助于为政府部门优选浒苔治理方案提供参考依据。The difference in the respondents'belief in consequentiality caused controversy of stated preferences.This paper tested the heterogeneous influences of policy consequentiality and payment consequentiality on the stated preference.We take residents'preferences for the governance of Ulva Proliera bloom in Qingdao as an example,and distinguish residents'belief in the policy and payment consequentiality.The results revealed that compared with conventional models,the model including consequentiality was more effectively.People with stronger beliefs in policy and payment consequentiality showed stronger preference of the attributes of Ulva prolifera governance and lower sensitivity of governance costs.Therefore,those people showed a significantly higher willingness to pay.However,no significant differences between the effect of policy and payment consequentiality on willingness to pay was found.In addition,the Qingdao residents show a strongest preference on the reducing of the cover area of Ulva Proliera,followed by offshore distance,maximum density and duration times.The annual willingness to pay are CNY 57.11,48.33,34.78 and 29.11 on average,respectively.Moreover,the female and the lower income groups showed strong preferences on the management of Ulva Proliera and stronger beliefs concerning policy and payment consequentiality.The elderly showed lower preference on the management of Ulva Proliera and higher beliefs in policy and payment consequentiality.This study would provide theoretical references for designing an incentive-compatible questionnaire,also is help to make a benefit-cost analysis of the management of Ulva prolifera blooms.

关 键 词：选择实验 政策结果性 支付结果性 支付意愿 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]