城乡交错区耕地非农转换影响因素及空间分布识别——以上海浦东新区为例  

Influencing Factors and Spatial Distribution Identification of Farmland Conversion at the Urban-Rural Fringe:A Case Study of Pudong New Area,Shanghai

作　　者：段鑫宇 蔡银莺 张安录[1,2] DUAN Xin-yu;CAI Yin-ying;ZHANG An-lu(College of Public Administration,Huazhong Agriculture University,Wuhan 430070,China;Institute of Ecological and Environmental Economics,Huazhong Agriculture University,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]华中农业大学生态与环境经济研究所,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2021年第1期54-63,共10页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71974068、71573099);国家社科重大基金项目(18ZDA054)。

摘　　要：精准识别城乡交错区耕地非农转换影响因素及空间分布特征,有助于保护城市周边优质耕地及永久基本农田。以上海市浦东新区作为城乡交错区典型例证,从微观地块非农转换概率和转换比率两个维度构建跨栏模型识别耕地非农转换的关键影响因素,综合运用耕地非农转换风险评估模型与热点分析等方法,分析研究区内未来耕地非农转换的潜在分布空间。结果表明:(1)浦东新区耕地的非农转换存在部分转换或渐进转换现象,平均转换比率仅有19%,多以"带状"和"片状"的形式出现;(2)耕地非农转换过程较为复杂,耕作地块与水源、农路及城镇的距离以及地块是否处在基本农田保护规划管控范围或位于城市发展边界内等是影响其非农转换的关键因素;(3)依据耕地非农转换风险将浦东新区耕地划为非农转换风险区、脆弱区、敏感区及安全区四类,其中2426.86 hm^(2)耕地面临大规模非农转换胁迫的高风险,5449.7和3793 hm^(2)耕地处在非农转换脆弱和敏感区,15253.5 hm^(2)耕地处在非农转换概率低的农业生产安全区,是城市永久基本农田重点建设的耕地。该研究尝试识别出浦东新区耕地非农转换的潜在胁迫地块及空间分布,为地方政府加强耕地保护及农业基础设施投入提供参考。It is helpful to protect high-quality farmland and permanent basic farmland by accurately identifying the influencing factors and spatial distribution characteristic at the urban-rural fringe.In this paper,we take Shanghai Pudong New Area as a typical example of urban-rural fringe.Based on the difference between the conversion probability and the conversion rate on patch scale,a hurdle model is constructed to identify the key influencing factors of farmland conversion.Furthermore,based on the estimation results of the hurdle model,we improved the risk assessment model to evaluate the risk of farmland conversion,and analyzed the possible spatial distribution of farmland conversion by hot spot analysis.The results show that:(1)The farmland conversion process in Pudong New Area is not complete,the average conversion rate is about 19%on patch scale,and there is obvious spatial distribution characteristics for these converted plots,such as the form of block or strip.(2)The farmland conversion process is very complicated,only the key influencing factors have significant dual impacts on it,including the nearest distance between the plots and water source,rural road,town,whether the plots in basic farmland conservation area or within urban development boundary or not.(3)According to the results of risk assessment and hot spot analysis,the farmland is divided into four types:risk area,fragile area,sensitive area and safety area.Based on the division results showed above,about 2426.86 hm^(2) farmland are at risk of large scale conversion,about 5449.7 and 3793 hm^(2) farmland are located in fragile area and sensitive area,about 15253.5 hm^(2) farmland are left in agricultural production safety area with low farmland conversion probability,which could be used as the permanent basic farmland of the city for key construction.The study attempts to identify possible farmland conversion plots and their spatial distribution in Pudong New Area,hoping to provide reference for local governments to strengthen farmland protection and a

关 键 词：耕地非农转换 空间分布 跨栏模型 风险评估模型 城乡交错区 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]