基于土地价格预测的北京房地产价格分析  

Beijing Real Estate Price Analysis Based on the Land Price Prediction

作　　者：徐勃 毕星[1] 刘佳 XU Bo;BI Xing;LIU Jia(School of Management and Economic,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《河南科学》2021年第2期327-334,共8页Henan Science

摘　　要：北京房地产价格及未来走势一直是全社会关注的焦点.系统总结了房地产成本的影响因素,认为房地产土地价格是房地产成本最直观的影响因素.针对房地产价格的预测方法进行梳理与比较,阐述各种预测方法的优缺点,随后详细介绍本文所采用的预测方法——离散二阶差分方程预测模型(DDEPM).利用DDEPM方法,对2003—2028北京房地产土地价格与房地产价格进行预测分析与比较.通过预测数据,为北京房地产市场制定相关政策提供决策参考.Beijing real estate price and its future trend have been the focus of the whole society.This paper systematically summarizes the influencing factors of the real estate cost,and considers that the real estate land price is the most intuitive influencing factor of the real estate cost.The prediction methods of real estate prices are sorted and compared,and the advantages and disadvantages of various forecasting methods are introduced.Then the prediction method(discrete two order difference equation prediction model,DDEPM)is introduced in detail.Using the DDEPM method,the paper forecasts and compares the land price and the real estate price of 2003-2018 Beijing real estate.Through forecasting data,it can provide decision-making reference for the development of relevant policies in Beijing real estate market.

关 键 词：土地价格 DDEPM 房地产售价 预测 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]