局部地区冲突冲击了中国石油进口吗  

Do Local Conflicts Affect China’s Oil Imports

作　　者：南楠[1] 程中海[1,2,3] 赵浥馨 NAN Nan;CHENG Zhong-hai;ZHAO Yi-xin(不详)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院 [2]中国(新疆)边境贸易研究中心 [3]新疆维吾尔自治区普通高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地兵团屯垦经济研究中心

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2021年第2期19-36,共18页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71773115);新疆维吾尔自治区研究生创新项目(XJ2019G099)

摘　　要：文章利用1992~2018年中国从80个国家石油进口的非平衡面板数据,实证考察出口国发生局部地区冲突对中国石油进口的影响,并对其异质性特征和可能的影响机制予以识别。研究表明,出口国局部地区冲突会给中国石油进口带来显著的负向冲击,该影响主要是局部地区冲突引起出口国石油产量下降所致。局部地区冲突不会通过国际油价和中国石油对外直接投资影响中国石油进口。石油资源禀赋和"一带一路"倡议能够在一定程度上对冲局部冲突对中国石油进口的负向影响。局部地区冲突对中国石油进口的冲击具有明显的阶段性特征,并且随着中国石油进口依存度的攀升逐渐增强。在当前国际油市深度调整的现实背景下,该研究为深刻认识一系列国际重大突发事件对中国石油进口的影响、保障中国石油进口安全提供了科学借鉴。Based on the unbalanced panel data of China’s oil imports from 80 countries from1992 to 2018, this paper empirically examines the impact of local conflicts in exporting countries on China’s oil imports, and identifies its heterogeneous characteristics and possible influencing mechanisms. The research shows that local conflicts in exporting countries are negative to China’ s oil imports, which is mainly due to the decline of oil production in exporting countries caused by local conflicts. Local conflicts will not affect China’s oil imports through international oil prices and foreign direct investment of China’ s oil. Oil resource endowment and the Belt and Road( B&R) Initiative can hedge the negative impact of local conflicts on China’s oil imports to some extent. The impact of local conflicts on China’ s oil imports has obvious stage characteristics and gradually increases with the increase of China’s oil import dependence. Under the realistic background of deep adjustment of the current international oil market, this research provides a scientific reference to deeply understand the impact of major international emergencies and ensure the safety of China’s oil imports.

关 键 词：局部地区冲突 石油进口 石油资源禀赋 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]