弗斯曼模型及其广义改进:基于林地期望值评估方法学演进  

Faustmann Model and Its Generalization:Methodology Evolution Based on Evaluation of Forestland Expectation Value

作　　者：张楠 宁卓 杨红强[1,2,3] Zhang Nan;Ning Zhuo;Yang Hongqiang(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037;Research Center for Economics and Trade in Forest Products,NFGA,Nanjing 210037;Research Center for the Yangtze River Delta’s Socioeconomic Development,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037 [2]国家林业和草原局林产品经济贸易研究中心,南京210037 [3]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心,南京210093

出　　处：《林业经济》2020年第10期3-15,共13页Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于‘碳负债-碳补偿’的时间动态林业碳减排集成评估系统与测度”(编号:72073064);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“林产品贸易碳平衡的国际博弈:体系建构与机理研究”(编号:71703069);江苏省“333高层次人才工程”科研项目“全球林产品贸易碳流动及碳减排潜力研究”(编号:BRA2018070)。

摘　　要：林地资产是投资机构投资组合中的重要资产之一,林地的资产收益性和生态价值评估是投资决策的重要依据,而最佳采伐决策可实现经济和生态双重效益的最大化。文章以弗斯曼(Faustmann)基础模型为理论框架,结合林业部门的自然和经济特征,梳理Faustmann模型广义改进。因林地生产具有长期性特征,文章进一步归纳考查风险和不确定性因素影响下的Faustmann拓展模型,探究林地期望值与采伐管理方案变动之间的关系。研究发现:(1)林业部门内的Faustmann模型广义改进主要从林分管理、林地税收及林地服务三个角度出发。其中,Faustmann模型框架下的林分管理最优方案会因折现率的提高从同龄林分管理过渡到异龄林分管理;不同林业税收会影响税后林地期望值和轮伐周期;考虑林地服务的Hartman模型及考虑碳储收益的Van Kooten模型会采取更长的轮伐周期。(2)纳入自然风险的Reed模型结果表明,自然风险会缩短轮伐周期;利用Pressler指标利率构建风险承受能力水平得出适当的风险偏好水平会提高林地经营效益。(3)政策不确定性对未来收益产生负面影响时,林地期望值降低,营林投资减少,轮伐周期缩短;木材价格不同表现形态对轮伐周期和林地期望值影响机制不同。为拓宽Faustmann模型应用范围,文章提出利用实物期权分析、丰富价格形态讨论、结合林地管理实践的三点启示。Faustmann模型在林分管理方案、税收政策调节、生态价值实现方面的政策涵义可为林业政策的制订实施提供理论支撑。Forestland is an important alternative asset in institutional investment portfolio.The asset and ecological value of forestland is an important basis for investment decision and the optimal choice of harvesting time can realize the double maximization of economic and ecological benefits.On the basis of Faustmann’s original model,combined with the natural and economic characteristics of forestry,we summarize the generalization of the model.Due to the long-term nature of forestland production,this paper further summarizes the Faustmann expansion model considering the risk and uncertainty factors,and explores the relationship between land expectation value and forestland management.We find that:(1)The generalized improvement of Faustmann model in forestry sector is mainly based on forest stand management,tax and forest service.The optimal stand management scheme under the framework of Faustmann model will shift from even-aged to uneven-aged management due to the increase of discount rate.Different types of forest taxation may affect land expectation value and rotation age.The rotation age of the Hartman model considering amenity services and the Van Kooten model considering carbon value will be longer than that of the Faustmann model.(2)The Reed model incorporating natural risks within the Faustmann framework shows that natural risks may shorten the rotation age.Using Pressler’s indicator rate formula to analyze the risk preference issue and find that properly selected level of risk preference may lead to better forest management performance.(3)When policy uncertainty has a negative impact on future income,land expectation value will decrease,the afforestation investment will be reduced and the rotation age gets shorten.Different manifestations of timber prices have different impact mechanisms on rotation age and land expectation value.In order to broaden the application scope of Faustmann model,this paper puts forward three enlightenments:using real option analysis,enriching the discussion of price patterns,and

关 键 词：林地期望值 Faustmann模型 林分管理 不确定性 政策涵义 

分 类 号：F316.23[经济管理—产业经济] O211.67[理学—概率论与数理统计]