林业科技服务驱动效应及农户响应机制实证研究  

Empirical Study on the Driving Effect of Forestry Science and Technology Service and Farmers’Response Mechanism

作　　者：张凡永[1] 毛佳 杜娟[2] 朱述斌[1,2] Zhang Fanyong;Mao Jia;Du Juan;Zhu Shubin(School of Forestry,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045;School of Economics and Management,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学林学院,南昌330045 [2]江西农业大学经济管理学院,南昌330045

出　　处：《林业经济》2020年第10期50-64,共15页Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“南方集体林改后林业科技服务模式创新与优化研究——以江西省为例”(编号:71663027);江西省高校人文社会科学研究基地招标项目“集体林区林业科技服务利益相关者行为及政策优化研究——以江西省为例”(编号:JD16087)。

摘　　要：文章通过国家林业和草原局"集体林权制度改革监测"项目集体林区跟踪调查获取的3910个有效样本农户数据,从实证的角度考察了林业科技服务驱动效应和农户响应内在机制。研究发现,农户对林业科技服务的响应是真实状态相依行为,前期农户林业科技服务响应的发生,可使农户未来响应的平均预期概率显著提高约10.8%,对初始观测为"没响应"的农户,平均预期响应概率显著提高11.64%~13.47%;增加农户林业经营的即期收入可显著提高农户林业科技服务响应概率,但农户林业经营收入具有内生性,农户林业长期经营的期望收入目标与国家对实现森林生态效益目标具有一致性;户主职业非农化倾向会直接且显著提高农户林业经营即期收入,通过林业经营即期收入的中介作用可以间接影响农户对林业科技服务的响应;户主职业变量为内生性变量,农民进入农林业"外循环"的职业非农化有利于解决农民收入增长缓慢和"农林业内卷化"发展问题。基于此,文章提出建设多元化主体参与的新型林业科技推广服务体系、转变林业发展方式强化森林经营、扩大集体林区农村开放程度等促进集体林区现代林业高质量发展以及助推林区乡村振兴的对策建议。Based on the data of 3910 effective sample farmers obtained from the project of"collective forest property right system reform monitoring"of the National Forestry and Grassland Administration,this paper investigates the driving effect of forestry science and technology services and the internal mechanism of farmers’response from an empirical perspective.It shows that the occurrence of early farmers’responses to forestry science and technology services can significantly increase the average expected probability of farmers’future responses by about 10.8%.For those farmers whose initial observations are not responding,the average expected probability is significantly increased by about 11.64%~13.47%.Increasing the short-term explicit operating income can significantly increase the response probability of farmers,but farmers’forestry management income is endogenous,and the expected income goal of farmers’long-term forestry management is consistent with the national goal of achieving forest ecological benefits.The non-agricultural tendency of the occupation of the head of household will directly and significantly increase the farmers’immediate income of forestry management,and indirectly affect the farmers’response to forestry science and technology services through the intermediary role of the immediate income of forestry management.What’s more,the occupational variables of household heads is a kind of endogenous variables,and the occupational non-agricultural tendency of farmers involving into the"external circulation"of agriculture and forestry is conducive to solving the slow growth of farmers’income and the development problem of"Involution in Agriculture and Forestry".Finally,the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions,such as building a new forestry science and technology extension service system with diversified participation,changing the forestry development mode,strengthening forest management,expanding the rural opening degree of collective forest areas,etc.,which can promo

关 键 词：林业科技服务 驱动效应 农户响应机制 状态相依 非观测异质性 

分 类 号：F303.2[经济管理—产业经济] D421.7[政治法律—政治学]