大型石化储罐腐蚀寿命预测方法及其案例对比分析  

Comparative analysis of the life prediction methods of the large chemical storage tanks and a case sample analysis

作　　者：宋高峰[1] 张延兵[1] 沈硕勋 孙培培 王志荣 陈文涛[3,4] SONG Gao-feng;ZHANG Yan-bing;SHEN Shuo-xun;SUN Pei-pei;WANG Zhi-rong;CHEN Wen-tao(Jiangau Inatitutc of Sufcty Supcrvision and Inapcction of Spc-cial Equipment,Nantong 226011,Jiangsu,China;College ofSafety Seience and Fnginering,Nanjing Tech lIniversity,Nan-jing 211816,China;China Research Center for EmergencyManagement,Wuhan Universitv of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;China Occupational Safety and Health Association,Beijing 100011,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省特种设备安全监督检验研究院,江苏南通226011 [2]南京工业大学安全科学与工程学院,南京211816 [3]武汉理工大学中国应急管理研究中心,武汉430070 [4]中国职业安全健康协会,北京100011

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2020年第6期2085-2090,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：国内现有大型石化储罐数量众多,在储罐服役时间逐渐增长、储存介质腐蚀性增强的情况下对储罐腐蚀剩余寿命的预测研究是当下石化设备维护领域的发展趋势。结合现有的3种储罐腐蚀剩余寿命预测方法,以国内某常压立式储罐为例,通过对其某次储罐底板无损检测情况进行统计计算来对比3种方法的寿命预测效果。结果表明,基于Gumbel极值分布法和有限折线近似替代法能较为可靠地预测服役储罐的剩余寿命,且前者能依赖更少的试验数据并利用极值分布进行更准确的剩余寿命分析。The purpose of this paper is to analyze the reliability of the remaining life calculation methods by comparing the 3 currently adopted methods for predicting the remaining life of tank corrosion.The paper has first of all analyzed the 3 types of typical tank corrosion failures:the perforation failure,the instability failure,and the cracking failure.The so-called perforation failure refers to the main trouble to lead to failure of the face for the most petrochemical storage tanks in use,whereas the perforation corrosion is mainly concentrated in the storage tank top and bottom.And,thus,the given paper would like to introduce the Gumbel extreme value distribution method,the finite polyline approximation substitution method and the conventional remaining life prediction method from the point of view of their own prediction function for the corrosion life of the storage tanks.Taking the atmospheric vertical storage tank made in China for example,the cumulative distribution map of the corrosion pit depths at the 3 parts of the tank can be taken in combination with the detection data of the tank top plate,the bottom plate of the tank bottom.It can be found that the corrosion depth of the tank top plate can be so serious as to twice that of its bottom plate,with the local corrosion depth of the middle plate of the tank bottom being much higher than with the other parts.Based on the above findings and combined with the maximum corrosion pit depth and detection statistical data,it would be possible for us to carry out the remaining life calculations through the above 3 prediction methods.As to the remaining life calculation by using the Gumbel extreme value distribution method,the finite polyline approximation substitution method and the conventional remaining life prediction method can be found equal to 11.42 years long,and 12.09 and 27.51 years long.According to the actual service life comparison of such tanks,the Gumbel extreme value distribution method can be found more reliable than the other two.However,the finite p

关 键 词：安全工程 石化储罐 腐蚀 寿命预测 Gumbel极值分布 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]