不同闪电跃增算法在北京地区应用效果对比  

Comparison of the Performance of Different Lightning Jump Algorithms in Beijing

作　　者：田野 姚雯[3] 尹佳莉 郄秀书[4] 曹海维 李晋 袁善锋 王东方[4] Tian Ye;Yao Wen;Yin Jiali;Qie Xiushu;Cao Haiwei;Li Jin;Yuan Shanfeng;Wang Dongfang(Beijing Meteorological Observation Center,Beijing 100089;Institute of Urban Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100089;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;Key Laboratory of Middle Atmos phere and Global Environment Observation(LAGEO),Institute of Atmos pheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]北京市气象探测中心,北京100089 [2]北京城市气象研究院,北京100089 [3]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [4]中国科学院大气物理研究所中层大气和全球环境探测重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2021年第2期217-232,共16页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2019LASW-B07)。

摘　　要：基于S波段多普勒天气雷达基数据、北京闪电定位网全闪定位数据和北京地区降雹的人工观测结果,对比分析Gatlin和σ两种闪电跃增算法在不同配置下对北京地区2015—2018年共177次冰雹天气过程的预警效果。结果表明:不同倍数的σ算法预警结果差别很大,2σ(要求当前闪电频数变化率超过之前平均闪电频数变化率两倍标准差)在σ算法中的预警效果最佳;不同N(总闪频数变化率的数量)配置下的Gatlin算法的预警结果差别不大,其中当N=6时的预警效果最佳。2σ算法的命中率、虚警率和临界成功指数分别为80.2%,41.6%和51.1%,N=6的Gatlin算法的相应结果分别为82.5%,62.0%和35.2%。另外,详细分析了一次多单体雷暴过程和一次飑线过程中两种算法的应用情况,结果也表明Gatlin算法比2σ算法的命中率略高,但虚警率偏高很多,临界成功指数偏低。综合Gatlin算法和σ算法对冰雹预报结果评估情况,发现2σ闪电跃增算法更适于对北京冰雹天气的预警,对提升闪电数据在北京地区冰雹预报业务的可用度有一定参考价值。Based on S-band Doppler weather radar raw data,the total lightning location data of Beijing Lightning Network(BLNET)and hailfall reports from Beijing Meteorological Service,two lightning jump algorithms,Gatlin algorithm andσalgorithm,with different configurations are compared and analyzed for early warning performance of 177 hailfall events in Beijing from 2015 to 2018.The results show that,the early warnings of different multiples ofσalgorithm are quite different,2σ(in this situation,the current changing rate of total flash exceeds two times of the standard deviation of total flash rate in previous time)has the best performance in theσalgorithm.That is to say,2σalgorithm has the highest probability of detection(POD)and critical success index(CSI),as well as the lowest false alarm rate(FAR),comparing withσ,3σand 4σalgorithms.The early warnings of Gatlin algorithm under different N(which is the amount of samples before current time used to calculate the mean and standard deviation)configurations have little difference,and the early warning efficiency is best when N=6,comparing with N=7,8,9 and 10.The POD,FAR and CSI of 2σalgorithm are 80.2%,41.6%,and 51.1%,respectively.The corresponding results of the Gatlin algorithm with N=6 are 82.5%,62.0%,and 35.2%,respectively.In addition,the applications of these two algorithms to a multi-cell thunderstorm process and a squall line process are analyzed in detail.The results also show that Gatlin algorithm with N=6 has a slightly higher POD than 2σalgorithm,but its FAR is much higher and its CSI is lower.Considering the evaluation of hail nowcast results by Gatlin algorithm and 2σalgorithm,2σlightning jump algorithm is more suitable for hail nowcasting in Beijing.And it is beneficial to improving the application of lightning data to hail nowcasting in Beijing.

关 键 词：闪电跃增 冰雹 预警 2σ算法 强对流 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]