“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家债务问题影响的实证研究  

An Empirical Study of the Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the Debt Problems in Countries along the Road

作　　者：张恒龙[1] 张玲燕 ZHANG Henglong;ZHANG Lingyan(School of Economics,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China)

机构地区：[1]上海大学经济学院,上海200444

出　　处：《上海大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第2期88-104,共17页Journal of Shanghai University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA130);上海高校智库内涵建设项目(2020-10-26)。

摘　　要：自2013年至今,"一带一路"倡议已经取得了显著进展,越来越多的国家加入其中,携手共建互利共赢的全球经济体系。但仍有个别国家为了维护其自身地位和利益,肆意炒作中国借此推行"债务陷阱",阻碍了倡议的顺利发展。因此,通过选取"一带一路"部分沿线国家的GDP、货物和服务出口以及外债总额存量等重要指标进行分析,对"一带一路"沿线国家债务情况做一个整体研究,对比考察其负债率、债务率及其增长率在"一带一路"倡议提出前后的变化,并建立计量模型,检验"一带一路"倡议对沿线国家外债总额存量以及负债率的具体影响。研究结果表明,"一带一路"倡议显著增加了沿线国家的外债存量,加重了部分国家的债务负担,部分沿线国家也存在债务问题,但倡议对沿线国家的负债率及其增长率影响都显著为负,减轻了其债务风险,中国并不是造成其债务问题的主要原因,也没有使其陷入"债务陷阱",关于"债务陷阱论"的指责是缺乏事实依据的。The Belt and Road Initiative has made remarkable progress since 2013 as more and more countries have been joining in the effort to build a mutually beneficial global economic system.However,in order to protect their own status and benefits,some countries deliberately spread rumors that China seizes the opportunity to push a"debt trap".Such rumors pose obstacles to the development of the Initiative.In view of this,the overall debt situation of the countries along the belt and road is studied with important indexes such as GDP,export of goods and services and stock of foreign debt of some countries along the route.The changes of liability ratio,foreign debt ratio and growth rate before and after the implementation of Belt and Road Initiative have been compared,followed by a econometric model to examine the specific impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the stock of foreign debt and liability ratio of the countries along the route.It is concluded that although the stock of foreign debt has significantly increased under the Initiative,which means increased debt burden and existing debt problems of some countries,the impact of the initiative on liability ratio and growth rate of the countries along route is significantly negative,which means risk reduction of their debt.To sum up,the accusation of China of setting up"debt trap"is groundless since the results show China is not the main cause of their debt problems,nor has them fallen into a"debt trap".

关 键 词：“一带一路” 债务陷阱 负债率 债务率 

分 类 号：F114.4[经济管理—国际贸易]