基于二参数抽样的作战方案可靠性分析算法  

Combat Plan Reliability Analysis Algorithm Based on Two‑Parameter Sampling

作　　者：李长军[1] 邱涛 张艳伟[1] LI Changjun;QIU Tao;ZHANG Yanwei(The 28th Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation,Nanjing 210007,China;School of Reliability and Systems Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电子科技集团公司第二十八研究所,南京210007 [2]北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院,北京100191

出　　处：《指挥信息系统与技术》2021年第1期80-85,共6页Command Information System and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51675026)资助项目。

摘　　要：针对兵棋推演作战方案的可靠性问题,提出了基于二参数抽样的作战方案可靠性分析算法。首先,建立兵棋推演作战方案的可靠性模型;然后,通过控制抽样距离和抽样方向2个调整参数,修正了模型样本点响应面函数,形成了基于一次二阶矩法计算分析方法的方案可靠度算法;最后,通过数值案例验证了可靠度指标,并利用工程案例分析了算法的应用效果。Aimed at the reliability problem of wargaming combat plan,the combat plan reliability analysis algorithm based on two-parameter sampling is proposed.Firstly,the reliability model of wargaming combat plan is established.Then,the response surface function of model sample points is modified by adjusting two adjustment parameters to control sampling distance and sampling direction,and the combat plan reliability algorithm is formed based on the first-order reliability method(FORM).Finally,the reliability index is verified by the numerical example,and the engineering applicability of the algorithm is illustrated by the engineering example.

关 键 词：作战方案 二参数抽样 响应面 设计点 可靠度 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]