人口老龄化、养老保险基金缺口弥补与经济增长  

Population Ageing,Pension Fund Gap Compensation and Economic Growth

作　　者：吕有吉 景鹏[2] 郑伟[1] LV Youji;JING Peng;ZHENG Wei(School of Economics,Peking University;School of Insurance,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871 [2]西南财经大学保险学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《金融研究》2021年第1期51-70,共20页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(14JZD027);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72004183)的资助。

摘　　要：本文构建一个包含财政支出和公共债务的世代交叠模型,以养老保险基金缺口弥补为核心内容,考察人口老龄化对经济增长的影响,并探讨采用何种基金缺口弥补方式更有利于促进经济增长。研究发现,若采用财政补贴方式弥补基金缺口,生存概率上升和生育率下降均提高经济增速;若采用发行公债方式或两者兼用方式弥补基金缺口,当人力资本产出弹性较小时相应结论不变,反之则经济增速随生存概率上升呈倒U型变化趋势,随生育率下降而提高。基金缺口弥补方式是影响经济增长的重要制度因素,人力资本产出弹性较小时发行公债方式下的经济增速最高,反之则为财政补贴方式。结合我国现实,本文认为政府应探索包括发行公债在内的多种基金缺口弥补方式以更好地应对人口老龄化,实现经济长期较快增长。With the continuous deepening of the population ageing in China in recent years,the shortage of the Employees'Basic Pension Fund has become increasingly severe and the downward pressure on economic growth has become more significant.The“system concept”put forward by the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China calls for the strengthen of overall planning.As stable and rapid economic growth is essential for pension system's sustainable operation,it is important to discuss about the pension fund gap issue under the framework of economic growth.This paper constructs an overlapping generations model that includes fiscal expenditure and public debt to examine the impact of population ageing on economic growth,and compares the methods of pension fund gap compensation in promoting economic growth.Our analyses reveal that:(i)if fiscal subsidies are used to compensate for the pension fund gap,both the raised survival probability and the declined fertility will increase economic growth;(ii)if public debts or a combination of fiscal subsidies and public debts are used to compensate for the pension fund gap,the above conclusion holds when the output elasticity of human capital is small,but the effect of the raised survival probability on economic growth follows an inverted U-shape pattern and the effect of the declined fertility on economic growth is positive when the elasticity is large;(iii)the way to compensate for the pension fund gap is an essential institutional factor for economic growth.This paper has three main contributions.First,in terms of research ideas,this paper uses the pension fund gap as the breakthrough point to achieve an organic combination of population ageing,pension fund gap compensation methods,and economic growth,and clarifies the influencing mechanism of population ageing and pension fund gap compensation methods on economic growth.Second,in terms of model construction,this paper comprehensively considers the substitution effect of the compensation for

关 键 词：人口老龄化 基金缺口弥补方式 经济增长 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险] F124[社会学—人口学] C924.24C913.6