广东省CO_2排放变化的社会经济影响因素  

Socioeconomic Factors Influencing CO_2 Emissions in Guangdong Province

作　　者：吴晓慧 余亚东[2] 梁赛 WU Xiaohui;YU Yadong;LIANG Sai(School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;School of Business,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237,China;Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education,Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875 [2]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237 [3]广东工业大学环境生态工程研究院,大湾区城市环境安全与绿色发展教育部重点实验室,广东广州510006

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2021年第3期772-782,共11页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.71874014,71704055)。

摘　　要：作为我国经济最为发达的省份之一,广东省社会经济可持续发展面临CO_2排放量增长的挑战.从多角度分析广东省CO_2排放变化的社会经济影响因素,有助于其实现低碳发展.基于投入产出模型,从生产、需求和供应角度分析1987—2015年广东省CO_2排放量的变化;此外,采用结构分解分析方法,从需求和供应角度量化广东省各种社会经济因素对CO_2排放变化的相对贡献.结果表明:①与生产端相比,需求侧和供给侧的研究有助于识别不同的关键行业,如建筑业(需求侧)、金融和保险业(供给侧).②降低碳排放强度是减少广东省CO_2排放的主要因素,而人均最终需求水平和人均初始投入增加是推动广东省CO_2排放增加的主要因素.③生产结构、最终需求结构和初始投入结构变化导致CO_2排放量略有增加,表明广东省具有较大的通过调整结构性因素减排CO_2的潜力.综上,建议除了生产端CO_2减排措施外,广东省还应采取需求侧和供给侧相关措施,如优化消费行为、产品分配行为和初始投入结构等.As one of the most developed provinces in China,the sustainable economic and social development of Guangdong Province is facing the challenge of increasing CO_2 emissions.Analyzing the socioeconomic factors of CO_2 emission changes from multiple perspectives is conducive to the low-carbon development in Guangdong Province.Based on the input-output analysis,this study investigates the evolution of CO_2 emissions from the perspectives of production,demand,and supply during 1987-2015.We also quantify the relative contribution of socioeconomic factors to CO_2 emissions during this period from the perspectives of demand and supply using structural decomposition analysis.The results show that:(1)Compared with the production-side results,the demand-side and supply-side results can identify new critical sectors that lead to CO_2 emissions(e.g.,the construction sector for demand-side results and the finance and insurance sector for supply-side results).(2)The decrease in CO_2 emission intensity is the major factor mitigating CO_2 emissions,while the per capita final demand and per capita primary inputs are the dominate factors for CO_2 emission increase in Guangdong Province during 1987-2015.(3)Changes in the production structure,final demand structure and primary input structure lead to slight increase in CO_2 emissions,indicating there is great potentials for future CO_2 mitigation by optimizing the structural factors in Guangdong Province.In summary,in addition to CO_2 reduction measures on the production side,Guangdong should also pay attention to demand-side and supply-side measures such as optimizing product consumption,product allocation,and primary inputs.

关 键 词：CO_2排放 社会经济影响因素 投入产出分析 结构分解分析 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]