黄河经济带上游区域低碳经济发展现状与发展战略分析  

Analysis of the Current Status and Development Strategy of Low-Carbon Economy in the Upper Yellow River Economic Belt

作　　者：冯丹蕾 刘明 刘莎[3] FENG Danlei;LIU Ming;LIU Sha(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao Shandong 266000,China;Northwest Institute of Historical Environment and Socio-Economic Development,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710119,China;School of Economics and Management,Xi’an Shiyou University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710065,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266000 [2]陕西师范大学西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院,陕西西安710119 [3]西安石油大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710065

出　　处：《生态经济》2021年第3期13-22,共10页Ecological Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究重点基地重大项目“西北资源开发生态补偿金融支持政策体系研究”(12JJD790020)。

摘　　要：黄河经济带上游区域作为"一带一路"的"源头",向西关系到丝绸之路经济带的崛起和我国向西开放的进程;向东延伸与我国沿海经济带相连,起到承上启下的作用。文章选取黄河经济带上游区域为研究对象,首先基于脱钩理论研究碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系;其次从人均生产总值、能源消费量、碳排放、城市化水平和服务化水平五个指标出发,分析经济增长影响碳排放的路径。研究发现:全国和黄河经济带上游区域脱钩拟合曲线趋势先向上、后向下,但黄河经济带上游区域脱钩指标值开始下降的时间晚、速度慢,说明其低碳经济发展程度落后于全国水平。经济增长通过两条路径影响碳排放:经济增长通过提高城市化水平对碳排放具有促进效应,通过提高服务化水平对碳排放形成减弱效应。The Yellow River economic belt is the"source"of"One Belt One Road".It plays a connecting role with west and east.The west is the Silk Road Economic Belt,it is important to Chinese opening policy.The east is China’s coastal economic belt.Therefore,the paper chooses it as the research object.Firstly,we studied the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth based on decoupling theory.Secondly,we analyzed the impact path of economic growth on carbon emission,through five indicators of gross production value,energy consumption,carbon emissions,urbanization level and service level.The study found the trend of decoupling fitting that both nationwide and the Yellow River economic belt is first up and then down.But the difference is the time and speed.The curve of the Yellow River economic belt starts to fall late and has a slow rat.It means that the low-carbon economic development is low.Economic growth affects carbon emissions in two ways:Economic growth has a promoting effect on carbon emissions by increasing the level of urbanization and per capita GDP.Economic growth reduces the effect of reducing carbon emissions by increasing the level of servicing,that is,the proportion of tertiary industries.

关 键 词：黄河经济带 碳排放 脱钩理论 VAR模型 城市化水平 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]