地方政府债务扩张对区域金融风险的溢出效应  

Spillover Effect of Local Government Debt Expansion on Regional Financial Risk

作　　者：沈丽[1] 范文晓 SHEN Li;FAN Wenxiao(School of Finance,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学金融学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2021年第2期51-63,共13页Review of Economy and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“新常态初期区域金融风险生成机理及防控对策研究”(16BGL052)。

摘　　要：基于市场参与主体行为的新视角研究地方政府债务扩张触发区域金融风险的多样化空间关联路径。以中国2009-2017年省际面板数据为基础,在设定的多种空间关联模式下,运用空间回归模型偏微分方法检验了地方政府债务扩张对区域金融风险的溢出效应。研究表明,区域金融风险存在正向空间关联效应,在地方政府举债行为、金融机构风险应对行为及其他投资者利己行为的影响下,地方政府债务扩张不仅会对本地区金融风险产生负面效应,还会放大邻近地区或经济金融关联紧密地区的金融风险,应从改善各市场参与主体的相关行为入手缓解这种溢出效应。From the perspective of the behavior of market participants,this paper researches the diversified spatial correlation paths of regional financial risks triggered by the expansion of local government debt.Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2009 to 2017,the spillover effect of local government debt expansion on regional financial risks is tested by using the partial differential method of spatial regression model under various established spatial correlation models.This study shows that regional financial risks have a positive spatial correlation effect.And under the influence of local governments'borrowing behaviors,financial institutions'risk response behaviors and other investors'self-interested behaviors,the expansion of local government debt not only has a negative effect on the financial risks in this region,but also amplifies the financial risks in neighboring regions or regions closely related in economy and finance.Therefore,the spillover effect should be alleviated by improving the relevant behaviors of market participants.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 区域金融风险 空间关联路径 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]