“林木增长值”交易市场构建研究——基于“两山论”在林业发展中的应用  

Research on the Construction of “Tree Growth Value” Trading Market——Based on the Application of “Two Mountains Theory” in Forestry Development

作　　者：薛阳 王吉恒[1] Xue Yang;Wang Jiheng(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Agricultural University Harbin 150000)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150000

出　　处：《林业经济》2020年第12期38-47,共10页Forestry Economics

基　　金：黑龙江省软科学项目“黑龙江省产业升级与创新驱动中心建设研究”(编号:GC16D115)。

摘　　要：森林资源兼具生态价值与经济价值,在稳固生态系统的同时还源源不断地为经济社会的建设输送原材料,并且随着世界碳交易的普及,其碳汇价值也逐渐被人们重视。但是,在GDP不断增长以及各行业快速扩张形势下,林木行业却相对发展缓慢。文章通过文献梳理和实际问题分析发现,林木经营融资难成为制约林业发展的一大难题。由于林木较长的成材周期以及养护期内持续的资金投入无法在木材收获期前获得足够的现金流支持,致使林木经营缺乏足够的市场吸引力。受"两山论"启发,文章提出交易"林木增长值"的设想,企图通过每年卖出一定"林木增长值"的方式让林农和林企回笼部分资金以缓解经营压力,力求实现"绿水青山"在短时间内变成"金山银山"。考虑到在这种交易模式下买方面临较大的风险,因此需要通过"林木期权"来为买方提供一份保险。文章通过云南景谷长生林碳汇造林项目的实际数据,借鉴实物期权思想理论和方法,计算了包含碳汇价值在内的林木总体价值对应的期权价格,在建立投融资机制、完善信用体系、创新金融衍生工具、引导金融工具合理定价和组建专业评估机构五个方面提出了推动"林木增长值"交易的政策启示。Forest resources have both ecological value and economic value, which not only stabilize the earth’s ecosystem, but also continuously transport raw materials for economic and social construction. With the popularization of global carbon trading, its carbon sink value has been gradually paid attention to by people. However, with the continuous increase of China’s GDP, all industries are expanding rapidly, but the forest industry is developing slowly. Through literature review and analysis of practical problems, it can be found that the financing difficulty of forest management has become a major problem restricting the development of the industry. Owing to the super long timber cycle and maintenance period of trees, the continuous capital investment cannot get enough cash flow support before the harvesting period, the forest management lack of sufficient attraction. inspired, by the "Two-Mountain Theory " this paper proposed "tree growth value", the idea of trying to sell each year a certain " tree growth value " to hoover up part of forest and forest enterprise alleviate the pressure of the business, strive to turn "green water castle peak" into "jinshan yinshan" in a short time. In view of the greater risk faced by the buyer under this trading mode, a tree option is needed to provide an insurance for the buyer. In the part of empirical analysis, refer to the idea of real option. the option price corresponding to the total value of trees containing the value of carbon sink is calculated through the actual case of the afforestation project of evergreen forest in Jinggu, Yunnan, Finally, the paper gives some suggestions on promoting the transaction of "tree growth value" from five aspects, such as establishing investment and financing mechanism, perfecting credit system,innovating financial derivatives, guiding reasonable pricing of financial instruments and establishing professional evaluation institutions.

关 键 词：两山论 林木增长值 实物期权 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济] F302