权力变迁视角下美韩同盟关系解读  

An Interpretation of US-South Korea Alliance from the Perspective of Power Shift

作　　者：赵懿黑 郑华[1] ZHAO Yihei;ZHENG Hua(School of International and Public Affairs,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海200030

出　　处：《上海交通大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第6期45-58,共14页Journal of Shanghai Jiao tong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：2020年国家社科基金重点项目“美国对华战略调整下的‘五眼联盟’转型与我国对策研究”(20AGJ005)。

摘　　要：通过分析布什—卢武铉、奥巴马—李明博、特朗普—文在寅三个时期的美韩关系,可以发现,由于美国采取了不同的对华政策,以及韩国的威胁评估、对中国处理周边事务作用的评估结果不同,美韩同盟形成了三种不同的模式。随着中国持续崛起,美国的亚太同盟体系很可能普遍呈现"大国需要小国,小国疏远大国"的模式;这将对美国推行其亚太战略带来阻力。因此,权力变迁时期守成大国的同盟关系,将同时取决于守成大国的战略选择,以及小国的战略选择。小国对于特定安全问题的威胁评估,以及对于崛起国家在控制地区问题作用的评估,将很大程度影响小国的同盟战略。Focusing on the US-South Korea relations in the three periods of Bush-Roh Moo-hyun,Obama-Lee Myung-bak,and Trump-Moon Jae-in,it is found that as the US has adopted different policies toward China,and South Korea’s assessment of the threats and the different assessment results of China’s role in handling peripheral affairs,the US-South Korea alliance has formed three different models.As China continues to rise,the Asia-Pacific alliance system of the US is likely to generally present a model of"big countries need small ones,and small ones alienate big ones",which will bring resistance to the US in pursuing its Asia-Pacific strategy.Therefore,the alliance relationship between the preserving powers during power shift will depend on both the strategic choices of the preserving countries and the strategic choices of the small ones.The assessment of the threats of small countries on specific security issues and the assessment of the role of rising countries in controlling regional issues will greatly affect the alliance strategy of small countries.

关 键 词：权力变迁 非对称同盟关系 美韩同盟 中韩关系 美国亚太战略 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学] D831.26[政治法律—外交学]