基于峰值模型的生态资源价值估算及偏差修正——以西江流域公益林为例  

Estimation and Deviation Correction of Ecological Value Based on Spike Model——A Case of the Public Welfare Forest in Xijiang River Basin

作　　者：史可寒 刘亚萍[1] 黄哲 Shi Kehan;Liu Yaping;Huang Zhe(Business School of Guangxi University,Nanning 530004)

机构地区：[1]广西大学商学院,南宁530004

出　　处：《林业经济》2020年第11期49-62,共14页Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“中国旅游扶贫技术效率与反贫困路径依赖破解研究”(编号:16XJL006);广西林业厅软课题“西江流域公益林生态价值评价与补偿机制研究”(无编号)。

摘　　要：生态资源价值估算是确定生态补偿标准的价值依据,也是完善生态补偿机制的重要基础。条件价值评价法(CVM)是评价生态资源价值的常用方法,但在应用时常因引导技术、样本及模型的选择产生偏差,影响估算结果的准确性和可靠性。文章以西江流域公益林为例,重点探讨了应用CVM估算生态资源价值时因模型选择导致的估计偏差问题。在规避调查环节可能存在偏差的基础上,选择峰值(Spike)模型分析影响受访者支付意愿的因素来测算WTP值,以修正Logit等传统模型无法处理零响应样本导致的估算结果偏差。研究发现:(1)Spike模型对包含零响应在内的样本拟合度更好,能够有效避免WTP被高估或低估的情况;(2)支付意愿影响因素分析中,年龄与受访者支付意愿呈负相关关系,受过高等教育的受访者支付意愿显著高于其他受访者,且受访者更愿意为享受公益林所具备的社会功能进行生态支付;(3)Spike模型估算得到西江流域生态补偿人均WTP值为135.82元/人·年,以广西融水县、鹿寨县以及柳州市区三地人口为基数,西江流域公益林生态资源价值至少达到3.68亿元。基于估算结果,从补偿来源、补偿方法及补偿落实三个方面提出了拓展生态补偿资金来源的相关建议以改善生态补偿标准偏低现状。研究为CVM模型选择估计偏差的修正做出了方法上的尝试,估算结果对该区域生态补偿标准调整具有重要的参考价值。Estimation of ecological resource value is the value basis to determine the ecological compensation standard and also the important basis to improve the ecological compensation mechanism.CVM is a commonly used method to evaluate ecological resource value,but it is often biased by the selection of guidance techniques,samples and models in application,which affects the accuracy and reliability of the estimation results.This study focused on the estimation bias caused by model selection when CVM was applied to estimate ecological resource value by taking Xijiang river basin as an example.Spike model was selected based on avoiding possible deviations in the survey to analyze the factors affecting respondents’willingness to pay and to calculate WTP,so as to correct the deviation of the estimated results caused by the failure of traditional models such as Logit to deal with zero-response samples.It was found that:(1)Spike model has better fitting degree for samples including zero-response,which can effectively avoid the situation that WTP is overestimated or underestimated.(2)In the analysis of the factors affecting willingness to pay,age and respondents’willingness to pay are negatively correlated.The willingness to pay of the respondents with higher education is significantly higher than that of other respondents,and the respondents are more willing to make ecological payment for the social functions of public welfare forest.(3)The WTP per capita of ecological compensation in Xijiang river basin has been estimated to be 135.82 yuan per person a year,and the ecological resource value of public welfare forest in Xijiang river basin was at least 368 million yuan based on the population of Rongshui county,Luzhai county and Liuzhou downtown area.Based on the estimation results,this study put forward suggestions to expand the source of ecological compensation funds,in order to improve the current situation of low ecological compensation standards,including compensation sources,compensation methods and compensation impl

关 键 词：生态资源价值 CVM 估算偏差 Spike模型 西江流域公益林 

分 类 号：F326.29[经济管理—产业经济] S718.557[农业科学—林学]