基于短时强降水概率预报的模糊检验试验  

Fuzzy Verification Test of Probabilistic Forecast of Short-Term Heavy Precipitation

作　　者：刘莹 肖递祥[1,2] 陈莹 LIU Ying;XIAO Dixiang;CHEN Ying(Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chendu 610072,China;Sichuan Meteorological Observatory,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610072 [2]四川省气象台,成都610072

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2020年第4期16-21,共6页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：基于多尺度模式的强降水短期精细化概率预报方法(2017YFC1502004);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室项目(2017-青年-05);川气课题2012-开发-01。

摘　　要：利用短时强降水概率预报模型生成短时强降水(≥20mm/h)概率预报产品,并对其进行"点对面"模糊检验试验。结果表明:短时强降水(≥20mm/h)概率预报和SWC_WARMS模式最大小时雨量(≥20mm/h)的"点对面"TS评分均明显高于相应的"点对点"评分,短时强降水(≥20mm/h)预报结果可在30~40km范围内进行调整;短时强降水(≥20mm/h)概率预报在概率为30%时TS评分达到最大,Bias接近为1,预报偏差最小;短时强降水(≥20mm/h)概率预报比SWC_WARMS模式最大小时雨量(≥20mm/h)预报更具有参考价值。The fuzzy verification test of probabilistic forecast product of short-term heavy precipitation(≥20 mm/h)have been carried out,which was generated by the probabilistic forecast model of short-term heavy precipitation.The results showed that:The"point to area"threat score of short-term heavy precipitation(≥20 mm/h)probability forecast and the"point to area"threat score of maximum hourly precipitation(≥20 mm/h)of SWC_WARMS model were both significantly higher than the"point to point"threat score,the short-term heavy precipitation(≥20 mm/h)forecast results can be adjusted within the range of 30 km-40 km.When the probability of short-term heavy precipitation?(≥20 mm/h)forecast was 30%,the threat score reached the maximum,and the Bias was close to 1,the forecast deviation was the minimum.The short-term heavy precipitation(≥20 mm/h)probability forecast was more valuable than the maximum hourly precipitation(≥20 mm/h)forecast of SWC_WARMS model.

关 键 词：短时强降水 概率预报 模糊检验 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]