基于Johnson分布的年降水量频率分析  

Frequency analysis of annual precipitation based on Johnson distribution

作　　者：常浩浩 宋松柏 吴海江 陈得方 CHANG Haohao;SONG Songbai;WU Haijiang;CHEN Defang(Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas,Ministry of Education,College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2021年第3期76-83,共8页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51479171,51579059,51179160)。

摘　　要：鉴于Johnson分布具有多种变换形式,能够通过复杂的变换曲线实现良好的曲线拟合能力。本文探讨了矩法、分位数法、普通最小二乘法(OLS)、权重最小二乘法(WLS)和对角权重最小二乘法(DWLS)5种Johnson分布参数估计方法并适线拟合,并将Johnson分布与P-Ⅲ分布的适线拟合效果进行对比。选取陕西省陕北地区4个气象站(定边、宜川、志丹和吴起)的年降水量序列资料,基于Johnson分布,应用5种参数估计方法分别对4个气象站的年降水量频率曲线参数进行估计。结果表明:基于Johnson分布模型的年降水量频率曲线能够有效拟合实测序列频率,DWLS法拟合效果最佳,其次为矩法、OLS法、WLS法、分位数法。此外,Johnson分布的拟合效果略优于P-Ⅲ分布。The Johnson distribution has many transformation forms,and therefore it can achieve a good curve fitting capability through complicated transformation curves.This article discusses parameter estimation using the moment method,quantile method,ordinary least square method(OLS),weighted least square method(WLS),and diagonal weighted least square method(DWLS).These five methods are used for curve fitting and the fitted Johnson distributions are compared with the fitting of P-Ⅲdistribution.To calculate precipitation frequency,we select the data series of annual precipitation at four meteorological stations(Dingbian,Yichuan,Zhidan and Wuqi)in northern Shaanxi,and use the Johnson distribution and the five parameter estimation methods to estimate the parameters of these data series.The results show that the annual precipitation frequency curve based on the Johnson distribution model can effectively fit the series;and DWLS gives the best fitting,followed by the moment method,OLS,WLS,and quantile method.In addition,the fitting of Johnson distribution is slightly better than that of P-Ⅲdistribution.

关 键 词：降水量 频率分析 Johnson分布 P-Ⅲ分布 参数估计 

分 类 号：P333.9[天文地球—水文科学]